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ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

陆面过程对全球变暖的响应及可能机制—基于CMIP3的多模式集合分析
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国家自然科学基金资助项目41075082、40905045,江苏省“333高层次人才培养工程”资助项目


Response of Land Surface Processes to Global Warming and Its Possible Mechanism Based on CMIP3 Multi-model Ensembles
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    摘要:

    利用“国际耦合模式比较计划” (Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP3) 12个模式对20世纪 (The Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models, 20C3M) 和21世纪SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1B 情景下的模拟结果, 通过21世纪 (2001~2099年) 与20世纪 (1901~1999年) 陆面能量和水文变量的对比分析, 揭示了陆面过程对全球变暖响应的基本特征, 并探讨了其可能的响应机制。结果表明, 与20世纪相比, 21世纪全球陆面平均的表面温度、 地表净辐射、 潜热通量明显增加; 而感热通量有所减小。降水、 径流、 蒸发等地表水循环分量也表现出不同程度的增加, 而土壤含水量有减小趋势。通过分析近地层主要大气强迫变量与陆面变量之间的联系, 发现陆面能量平衡过程对全球变暖的响应主要受向下长波辐射和气温变化的影响, 而温度的变化对陆面水文过程的影响起决定性的作用。进一步分析表明, 陆面过程对全球变暖的响应存在明显的区域性差异, 陆面温度和感热对全球变暖响应最显著的区域位于北半球中高纬, 而净辐射和潜热对全球变暖的响应在亚洲中部和非洲大陆最显著。相对于20世纪, 21世纪主要是长波辐射和温度对陆面能量平衡过程的贡献重要。对于陆面水文过程, 径流和土壤含水量对全球变暖的响应在亚洲中部以及北美最显著。在全球变暖背景下, 21世纪相对于20世纪, 温度对陆面水循环的影响更加显著, 主要体现在北半球中纬度地区。

    Abstract:

    Based on the model results of the 20th century (The Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models, 20C3M) and 21st century (SRES A1B scenario) simulations given by 12 climate models under Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), the thermal and hydrological responses of land surface processes to global warming together with their possible mechanisms are investigated by comparing the land surface energy and hydrological variables in the 21st century with those in the 20th century.Compared with those in the 20th century, the global averages of land skin temperature, surface net radiation and latent heat flux in the 21st century increase significantly, but the sensible heat flux decreases on the whole. In the aspect of the hydrological response, evident increasing trends are found in precipitation, surface evaporation and runoff, but decreasing trends in the soil water content. According to the linkages between the land surface variables and the atmospheric forcing variables under global warming, it is found that the thermal responses of the land surface to global warming are mainly induced by the changes of the air temperature and downward longwave radiation, however the hydrological variability of the land surface is dominated by the variation of the air temperature. Further investigation suggests that there are significant regional differences in both the thermal and hydrological responses of the land surface to global warming. The change of land skin temperature and sensible heat flux is remarkable, especially over mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. And the response of net radiation and latent heat flux to global warming is significant in central Asia and Africa. The contribution of temperature and downward longwave radiation becomes more important in the 21st century compared with the 20th century. The land surface hydrological cycle exhibits significant responses to global warming in Asia and North America. And the contribution of temperature is more important in the 21st century especially in middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere compared with the 20th century.

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华文剑,陈海山.陆面过程对全球变暖的响应及可能机制—基于CMIP3的多模式集合分析.大气科学,2011,35(1):121~133 Hua Wenjian, Chen Haishan. Response of Land Surface Processes to Global Warming and Its Possible Mechanism Based on CMIP3 Multi-model Ensembles. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),2011,35(1):121~133

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  • 在线发布日期: 2011-12-06
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