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ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

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“威马逊”(1409)降水水汽来源和源区定量贡献分析
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中国科学院大气物理研究所

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国家重点基础研究发展计划,国家自然科学基金


Moisture Sources and Quantitative Analyses of Source Contributions of Precipitation associated with Rammasun (1409)
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Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

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    摘要:

    利用拉格朗日轨迹追踪模式FLEXPART和水汽源区定量贡献分析方法,研究了超强台风“威马逊”登陆期间(2014年7月17日06时-19日06时)强降水的水汽来源和源区定量贡献。结果表明,大量目标气块源自目标降水区西南侧和东侧,西南侧气块可追溯到阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾等地区,且大部分气块来自相对较低层大气,高度在输送途中变化不大,来自东侧的气块可追溯到西太平洋海域,气块初始位置相对较高,在输送途中逐渐降低;源区定量贡献分析显示:南海区域(C)贡献最大,目标降水区域(T)局地贡献次之,孟加拉湾(B)和西太平洋南部区域(D)贡献相当且均低于区域T;区域C和T对“威马逊”登陆期间降水贡献较大源于其较高的源区水汽摄取率(尤其是区域C)和较低的沿途损耗率(尤其是区域T);区域B源地水汽摄取量高于区域D,但前者到达目标降水区域而未被释放的比例明显高于后者,同时,两者沿途损耗率相当,造成两者对目标降水区域的最终贡献也相当;尽管阿拉伯海区域(A)水汽摄取亦较明显,但由于沿途的显著消耗,导致其对目标降水区域的最终贡献显著降低。FLEXPART轨迹追踪模式和水汽源区定量贡献分析方法,与以往常用的环流和水汽通量分析相比,可更为清晰和定量地揭示热带气旋降水的水汽来源特征。

    Abstract:

    Using the Flexible Particle (FLEXPART) model, a Lagrangian particle dispersion model, and the areal source-receptor attribution method, the moisture sources and quantification of the contribution from moisture sources were studied during the supertyphoon Rammasun landfalling from 0600 UTC 17 July 2014 to 0600 UTC 19 July 2014. The results indicate that the vast majority of target particles are mainly from the southwest and east of the target precipitation region. The former originated from the relatively lower atmospheric layers and can be traced back to regions such as the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, while the particle height does not change much in transit. The latter can be traced back to the Western Pacific Ocean and the particles were relatively higher in initial position with height reduction during transportation. The South China Sea region (C) made the largest contribution, followed by the target precipitation region (T), meanwhile the Bay of Bengal (B) and the south of the Western Pacific region (D) both contributed similar amounts less than the region T. The greater contribution of region C and T to the precipitation during Rammasun landfalling is attributed to its higher Uptake (especially region C) and lower Loss along the way (especially region T). The Uptake in region B is higher than that in region D, but the Unreleased proportion of the former is significantly higher than that of the latter. Meanwhile, the Loss along the way of the two is equivalent, resulting in their final roughly equal contribution to the target precipitation area. Although the Uptake in the Arabian Sea region (A) is also substantial, its ultimate contribution to the target precipitation region is dramatically reduced due to significant consumption along the way. The FLEXPART mode and the areal source-receptor attribution method can reveal the characteristics of moisture sources related to tropical cyclone precipitation more clearly and quantitatively than the previous commonly used circulation and water vapor flux analysis.

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  • 收稿日期:2018-10-30
  • 最后修改日期:2019-03-16
  • 录用日期:2019-03-22
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