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基于信息流理论的因果分析在辨析大西洋多年代际振荡物理机制中的应用
作者:
作者单位:

1.北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室和全球变化与地球系统科学研究院,北京100875;2.青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室区域海洋动力学与数值模拟功能实验室,青岛266237;3.中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029

作者简介:

宫湛秋,女,1995年出生,硕士研究生,主要从事大西洋多年代际变化研究。E-mail: 201721490006@mail.bnu.edu.cn

通讯作者:

孙诚,E-mail: scheng@bnu.edu.cn

基金项目:

全球变化与海气相互作用专项GASI-IPOVAI-06、GASI-IPOVAI-03,国家自然科学基金项目41775038


The Application of Causality Analysis Based on the Theory of Information Flow in Distinguishing the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation Driving Mechanism
Author:
Affiliation:

1.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875;2.Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237;3.Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100029

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    摘要:

    大西洋多年代际振荡(AMO)是指发生在北大西洋的海表温度(SST)冷暖异常多年代际(50~80年)振荡的现象。通常AMO被认为是受大西洋经向翻转环流(AMOC)及其对应的海洋动力过程(经向热量输运)的影响。近年来有观点认为,AMO是大气随机热力强迫的产物,大气主导了海气间的热量交换进而影响AMO。弄清AMO和北大西洋海表热通量的因果关系是辨析AMO动力和热力驱动机制的关键。本文利用基于信息流理论的因果分析方法,研究了1880年以来观测的AMO与北大西洋海表热通量间的因果关系。结果表明,在多年代际尺度上,从AMO到海表热通量的信息流要远大于二者相反方向的信息流,这说明AMO是北大西洋海表热通量异常的因,海洋主导了海气间的热量交换。大气随机热力强迫机制无法解释AMO与热通量两者因果分析的结果。对泛大西洋地区的陆地气温和AMO指数进行分析,进一步表明由于海洋主导了海气热量交换,AMO的海温异常加热/冷却控制了绝大多数地区气温的多年代际变化。利用海温驱动的大气环流模式的模拟结果验证了AMO的海温异常对周边陆地气温强迫作用。本文的结果为辨析AMO的动力和热力驱动机制提供了新线索,进一步表明AMO并非是大气随机热力强迫的产物,海洋环流可能是AMO的主要驱动因子。

    Abstract:

    Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is the average sea surface temperature (SST) over the entire North Atlantic after the long-term warming trend is removed. In the reconstruction of North Atlantic SST from the mid-1800s to present, the basin-wide mean time series appears to oscillate with a period of 50-80 years. One of the most accepted theories is that the AMO is primarily driven by variation in the strength of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Recently, the atmosphere-forced thermodynamics for the AMO has been proposed. There is a clear need to figure out the causality between AMO and North Atlantic surface heat flux and it may provide a key feature to distinguish the AMO mechanisms. We use a newly developed technique that is based on the information flow concept to investigate the causal structure between the North Atlantic surface heat flux and the observed AMO from the mid-1800s. Our study shows one-way causality between North Atlantic surface heat flux and AMO. It is confirmed that the AMO is the main causal driver of the North Atlantic surface heat flux, which means ocean dynamics mainly dominates heat transport between ocean and atmosphere. The stochastic atmosphere-forced thermodynamics mechanism cannot explain the results. The results between the AMO and land surface air temperature further prove that the AMO dominates the North Atlantic surface heat flux transport. We conduct a SST forced ATL_VAR_AGCM experiment, and the results of the five ensemble members from the experiment verified the direct impact of the Atlantic SST forcing on land surface air temperature. The results of this study provide a new clue to distinguish the AMO mechanisms and further show that, instead of atmosphere-forced thermodynamics mechanism, ocean circulation may mainly drive the AMO.

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引用本文

宫湛秋,孙诚,李建平,冯娟,谢飞,杨韵,薛佳庆.基于信息流理论的因果分析在辨析大西洋多年代际振荡物理机制中的应用.大气科学,2019,43(5):1081~1094 GONG Zhanqiu,SUN Cheng,LI Jianping,FENG Juan,XIE Fei,YANG Yun,.The Application of Causality Analysis Based on the Theory of Information Flow in Distinguishing the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation Driving Mechanism.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),2019,43(5):1081~1094

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  • 收稿日期:2018-06-27
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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-09-23
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