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人类活动对1961~2016年长江流域降水变化的可能影响
作者:
作者单位:

1.中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081;2.中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081;3.南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京 210044;4.中国科学院大学,北京 100049

作者简介:

沙祎,女,1994年出生,硕士研究生,主要从事气候变化研究。E-mail: shayi218@sina.com

通讯作者:

徐影,E-mail: xuying@cma.gov.cn

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目2017YFA0603703、2017YFA0605004


Possible Effects of Human Activities on Trends in Precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin from 1961 to 2016
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081;2.National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081;3.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044;4.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049

Fund Project:

National Key Research and Development Program of China Grants 2017YFA0603703 2017YFA0605004National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grants 2017YFA0603703, 2017YFA0605004)

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    摘要:

    人类活动造成的温室气体浓度增加对气候变化的加剧做出了贡献,降水作为重要的气象要素和水循环组成部分,人类活动对其时空变化特征的影响也是当下研究的重要课题。本文以长江流域为例,利用1961~2016年CN05.1逐日降水数据和20世纪气候检测归因计划(C20C+D&A Project)中CAM5.1-1degree模式的逐日降水结果,分析了人类活动对长江流域年降水量及三个极端降水指数时空变化的影响。结果表明:包含人类活动及自然强迫因素的现实情景(All-Hist)的模拟结果与观测结果较为相近。All-Hist情景下的多试验集合平均结果对长江流域降水的模拟能力较为可靠。通过对比两种情景下模拟的长江流域降水量时空变化特征发现:考虑人类活动影响后,长江流域平均降水相对于仅考虑自然强迫情景下时呈现减少趋势,且减少趋势随时间推移加剧;极端降水受人类活动的影响随时间呈现出的增加趋势有所削弱;对平均降水及极端降水变化趋势的影响存在空间差异性,其中受人类活动影响最严重的是上游中部、东南部及中下游东南部地区,均呈现减少趋势;但在长江上游西南部极端降水受人类活动影响显著增加,需要加强该区域洪涝预防工作。另外,人类活动对平均降水的减少贡献最大的时段为2000~2009年,影响最明显季节为秋冬两季;人类活动对极端降水的影响与降水的极端程度成正相关,降水极端性越强,受人类活动影响的变化程度更大,且空间分布上的差异性也更加显著。

    Abstract:

    Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases caused by human activities have been contributing to climate change. The impact of human activity on the spatiotemporal variations in precipitation patterns has been an important focus of study. This paper takes the Yangtze River basin as an example for study. Daily precipitation data observed from 1961 to 2016, and daily precipitation simulation results of using the CAM5.1-1degree model in the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution Project, were used to analyze the contribution of human activities to the spatial, temporal, and trend variations in annual precipitation and three extreme precipitation indices over the Yangtze River basin. Simulation results, which included both anthropogenic and natural influences, were close to observations. Using statistical methods, model simulation ability was tested. It can be concluded that the average result of multiple runs of the actual scenario was more reliable for the simulation of precipitation over the Yangtze River basin. By comparing temporal and spatial variations when accounting for the impact of human activities, average precipitation over the Yangtze River basin showed a decreasing trend when compared with natural forcing only, and this decreasing trend has intensified over time. The increasing trend in extreme precipitation, as affected by human activities, has weakened over time. Based on spatial differences in average precipitation and extreme precipitation trends and percentage anomalies, the areas most affected by human activities were shown to be the upper central and southeast regions and the middle and lower southeast region, all of which showed a decreasing impact. However, in the southwest of the upper Yangtze River, extreme rainfall has increased significantly due to human activity. Increased flood prevention work is recommended for this area. The most significant period for the reduction of average precipitation caused by human activity was 2000-2009, and the sharpest seasonal decreases shown during autumn and winter. The impact of human activities on extreme precipitation was positively correlated with the extreme degree of precipitation. Compared with general heavy precipitation (R90p), extreme heavy precipitation (R99p) was affected by human activities with a greater range and more significant differences in spatial distribution.

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引用本文

沙祎,徐影,韩振宇,周波涛.人类活动对1961~2016年长江流域降水变化的可能影响.大气科学,2019,43(6):1265~1279 SHA Yi,XU Ying,Han Zhenyu,ZHOU Botao.Possible Effects of Human Activities on Trends in Precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin from 1961 to 2016.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),2019,43(6):1265~1279

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  • 收稿日期:2018-07-24
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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-11-14
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