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ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

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非自然因素引起的增温趋势的时空分布特征的研究
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作者单位:

1.兰州大学 大气科学学院;2.扬州大学物理科学与技术学院;3.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所;4.中国气象局国家气候中心

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金,公益性行业(气象)科研专项(重大专项)


Study on Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Temperature Increasing Trend Caused by Unnatural Factors
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National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration

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    摘要:

    基于数据长程相关性,利用相对变化趋势,构建气温相对变化趋势的概率密度函数及超越概率,研究并计算了1951~2017年中国气温相对变化趋势基于一定置信水平下属于自然变率范畴的置信限,判别相对变化趋势是否由非自然因素引起(增温是否显著),探讨不同地区非自然因素引起的温度变化的阈值、相应的转折时间段及演变趋势。结果表明:(1)中国160站温度资料中有10%的站点趋势显著性被传统线性回归方法高估了,这些站点主要位于西北、西南和东部沿海地区。(2)从全国温度趋势的空间分布来看,除新疆中西部地区呈现降温趋势之外,其他地区均为增温趋势,其中东北、内蒙及晋北地区非自然趋势大,增温显著。(3)从不同年代际增温显著区域的空间演变来看,华北、东北地区率先增温显著,之后逐渐向南向西扩展,1966-2001时段中国大部分区域表现为非自然增温显著;1971-2006时段,东北地区以及内蒙东北部增温显著区域开始逐渐减少,同时中国西南地区增温显著区域开始逐渐增多;1976-2011年增温显著区域最大;1981-2016年,增温显著站点主要集中在黄河、长江流域及两大流域之间和中国南方地区。综上,中国非自然因素引起的增温显著区域在时间和空间上均存在显著的年代际转折。本研究为中国气温变化的归因及其预测研究,为加强气候变化研究成果向短期气候预测的转化及联系提供新视角、新途径。

    Abstract:

    Based on the long-term correlation of data, the relative change trend is used to construct the probability density function and the exceedance probability. The confidence limit of temperature relative change trend belonged to natural variability category is studied and calculated under a certain confidence level in China from 1951 to 2017. Determine whether the relative change trend is caused by unnatural factors (whether the temperature increase is significant), and explore the threshold value of temperature changes caused by unnatural factors in different regions, the corresponding transition time period and the evolution trend. The results show that: (1) 10% of the site temperature in Chinese 160 stations are overestimated when using traditional linear regression methods to calculate trends significance . These sites are mainly located in the northwest, southwest and east coastal areas of China. (2) From the perspective of the spatial distribution of temperature trends in the country, except for the cooling trend in the central and western regions of Xinjiang, the other regions are all warming trends. The relative temperature changes in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, parts of Ningxia, southwestern Xinjiang, Yangtze River Delta and southwestern Yunnan are relatively large. The unnatural trends in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and the northern Shanxi Province are large, and the temperature increase is significant. (3) From the spatial evolution of the significant inter-decadal warming areas, the North China and Northeast China regions took the lead in increasing temperature, and then gradually expanded to the south and west. During the period of 1966-2001, most of Chinese regions showed an increase in unnatural factors; for 1971-2006, the northeastern region and the northeastern Inner Mongolia region began to gradually decrease in temperature, while the significant warming area in southwestern China began to increase gradually; the number of significant warming sites was the largest during 1976-2011; from 1981 to 2016, the significant warming sites was mainly concentrated in the Yellow River, the Yangtze River Basin and the two major river basins and the southern part of China. In summary, there are prominent inter-decadal transitions in both time and space in Chinese significant warming areas caused by unnatural factors. This paper maybe provide new perspectives and new ways for the attribution and prediction research of temperature change in China , and strengthen the transformation and linkage of climate change research results to short-term climate prediction.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-01-12
  • 最后修改日期:2019-04-09
  • 录用日期:2019-06-18
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