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CN 11-1768/O4

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西北太平洋地区台风环境场的预估研究
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1.成都信息工程大学;2.中国科学院大气物理研究所

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Projection of typhoon-related environmental fields on the western North Pacific
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Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

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    摘要:

    本文择优选取了国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)中19个气候模式的试验数据,预估了RCP4.5和RCP8.5典型浓度路径情景下21世纪末(2080~2099年)西北太平洋地区(0°~40°N和100°~180°E)台风环境场和台风生成潜力指数(GPI)变化。结果表明,相对于1986~2005年参考时段,21世纪末西北太平洋海洋表面温度(SST)增加,垂直风切变(VWS)和向外长波辐射(OLR)均在其与台风频数呈负相关的区域减少,有利于台风生成和发展;另一方面,由大陆向南海延伸的低压系统减弱,不利于台风活动。总体上,在RCP8.5情景下台风环境场的变化较RCP4.5情景相对更为显著。利用信噪比进一步考察了模式间差异性,SST变化的信噪比在大部分地区大于3.0,在低压系统控制区海平面气压变化的信噪比大于1.0,模式间一致性好;对于VWS和OLR,信噪比小于0.6,模式间差异较大;但在与台风频数显著相关的地区,模式对OLR变化方向的模拟高度一致。与以上环境场变化相对应,未来西北太平洋GPI显著增加。

    Abstract:

    This study projects the change in the environmental fields and genesis potential index of typhoon (GPI) over the western North Pacific (0°–40°N and 100°–180°E) at the end of the 21st century (2080–2099) using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 experiments undertaken by 19 climate models. These models are capable of reproducing modern background fields of typhoon reasonably and are selected out for the analysis. Compared to the reference period of 1986–2005, there appears increased sea surface temperature (SST) over the western North Pacific, weakened vertical wind shear (VWS) and decreased outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over the key regions where there are significantly negative correlations between these factors and the typhoon frequency, beneficial to the formation and development of typhoon; in contrast, the low pressure system extending from the mainland to the South China Sea is weakened, suppressing typhoon activities. Overall, the changes of environmental fields of typhoon under the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than under RCP4.5 scenario. Further, the signal to noise ratio is examined for measuring consistency across individual models. It is shown that such a ratio is higher than 3.0 for the change of SST and larger than 1.0 for sea level pressure over regions under the domination of low pressure system; for changes of VWS and OLR, the ratio of less than 0.6 denotes a degree of disagreement across models; nevertheless, models agree well on the sign of the change of OLR in regions associated with typhoon activities. The aforementioned changes of environmental fields of typhoon are in line with increased GPI in the future.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2019-06-06
  • 最后修改日期:2019-10-08
  • 录用日期:2019-12-23
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