双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

+高级检索 English
暴雨和强对流可预报性研究进展*
作者:
作者单位:

1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室;2.中国气象广州热带海洋气象研究所

作者简介:

通讯作者:

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金,国家重点基础研究规划项目


The Advances in Atmospheric Predictability on Heavy Rain and Severe Convection
Author:
Affiliation:

Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA, Guangzhou 510080

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
    摘要:

    大气可预报性研究是开展天气气候预测的基础科学问题。全球变暖背景下,近年暴雨和强对流等中小尺度灾害性天气频发,如何深入认识其可预报性问题成为了天气领域研究热点,也是制约数值天气预报模式能力提升的重要因素。本文在简要回顾大气可预报性研究历程的基础上,重点对近二十年国际上关于暴雨和强对流可预报性方面的最新研究进展进行了系统的综述和归纳。主要包括:中小尺度可预报性研究的主要方法和评估手段及其与传统大尺度天气可预报性研究的差异, 初始误差增长机制的几种主要观点及其争论(误差升尺度、误差降尺度、升降尺度并存), 数值模式误差和对流环境误差对实际预报性的影响, 以及最近的中尺度可预报性科学观测试验进展等。最后,对暴雨、强对流可预报性研究存在的问题、未来发展方向进行了简要的讨论和展望。

    Abstract:

    Atmospheric predictability research is the basis for weather and climate prediction. Under the background of global warming, meso/micro-scale extreme weather such as heavy rain and severe convection occur more frequently in recent years, and its predictability has attracted widely attention. After a brief review of the history of atmospheric predictability research, this paper systematically reviews and summarizes the latest advances on the predictability of heavy rain and strong convection over the last 20 years. The main research methods for meso/micro-scale predictability and their differences with traditional large-scale weather predictability research are first discussed. Then, the primary initial error growth mechanism (error upscaling under deep moist convection) has been elaborated in detail and some arguments (error downscaling, error upscaling and downscaling coexisting) are discussed. The influences of errors in NWP models and convective environment to the practical predictability, as well as some recent mesoscale predictability experiments are also highlighted. Finally, this paper briefly discusses the current problems, challenges and future directions on predictability research of heavy rain and severe convection.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2019-07-08
  • 最后修改日期:2019-12-24
  • 录用日期:2020-03-24
  • 在线发布日期:
  • 出版日期: