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ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

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层状云催化宏微观物理响应的数值模拟研究
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中国气象科学研究院 中国气象局人工影响天气中心 北京,100081

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41075099


Numerical Simulation of Macro and Micro Physical Response of Stratiform Cloud Seeding
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    摘要:

    层状云系是进行人工增雨开发利用空中云水资源的重要对象,增雨作业需要有科学可行的技术指标来指导实际作业的科学实施,而合理准确评估人工增雨作业的效果也是需要解决的重要课题,通过数值模式合理地仿真模拟实际催化作业的过程,进而研究增雨作业后云和降水的一系列宏微观特征的变化及其机理,是建立和改进催化作业技术的必要途径,也是评估实际人工增雨作业效果的有效手段。本文使用三维中尺度冷云催化模式对2014年4月15日河北省一次层状云降水的飞机催化作业过程进行了仿真模拟,力图对实际作业过程进行合理再现,通过对模拟结果的分析,研究飞机播撒的AgI催化剂在空中的扩散传输特征,分析催化对云和降水宏微观特性的影响,并对此次飞机催化作业的增雨效果进行评估。研究结果表明,播撒的AgI催化剂烟羽扩展的水平尺度可达数十公里以上,垂直方向上大部分AgI粒子则主要集中在作业层上下约1km的厚度范围内,AgI粒子的向上输送明显强于向下的输送;催化后云中的冰晶和雪粒子明显增加,导致催化模拟的前期霰的增长受到抑制,之后随着霰碰并雪过程及零度层附近冰相粒子淞附过程的增强,云中霰的总量逐渐增加;催化作业后,催化云的雷达回波强度有明显增强,且随时间变化表现出不同的结构特征;催化导致地面降水出现先减少后增加的时间变化特征,催化后3小时,作业影响区向作业区下游扩展100km以上,总体呈现减雨-增雨的区域分布特征;数值模拟评估表明,整个评估区内的净增雨量达到3.6ⅹ107kg,平均增雨率为1.1%,暖层霰粒浓度的增加是降水增加的主要原因。因为作业目标云系催化条件一般,而播撒的AgI剂量偏大,造成增雨作业效果偏低。

    Abstract:

    Stratiform cloud system is important object for the exploitation and utilization of cloud water resources. Precipitation enhancement requires scientific and feasible operational technical indicators to guide the implementation of actual operations, and reasonable and accurate assessment of operational effects is an important issue that need to be solved. It is a necessary way to establish and improve the operation technology to simulate the actual seeding operation process reasonably by numerical model, and then study changes and mechanism of a series of macro and micro characteristics of cloud and precipitation after seeding operation. It is also an effective method to evaluate the effect of practical precipitation enhancement operation. An aircraft seeding operation during the stratiform cloud precipitation in Hebei province on April 15, 2014 was emulationally simulated by a 3D mesoscale cold cloud seeding model. The actual operation process was reasonably simulated by the numerical model. The diffusion and transmission characteristics in atmosphere of AgI particles seeded by aircraft was studied, and seeding influence on the macro and micro characteristics of cloud and precipitation was analyzed, and precipitation enhancement effect of the aircraft seeding operation was evaluated. The results show that the horizontal scale of AgI plume can extend more than tens of kilometer, and most of AgI particles in the vertical direction are concentrated within the range of about 1km above and below the seeding layer. The upward transport of AgI particles is significantly stronger than the downward transport. The outstanding increase of ice crystals and snow particles in the cloud after seeding operation lead to the inhibition of graupel growth in the early simulation stage. However, the enhancement of graupel collection snow process and ice phase particles riming processes near zero layer gradually increase total mass of graupel after some time. After the aircraft seeding operation, the radar reflectivity has obvious enhancement and show different structure characteristics with time. The precipitation decreases first and then increase with time as a result of seeding. Three hours after seeding, the operation influence area extended more than 100km to the downstream of the operation area, and showing the distribution characteristics of rainfall-reducing area first and then rainfall-increasing area in general. The model evaluation indicates that the net rainfall increased by 3.6×107kg in the entire evaluation area, with an average rainfall-increasing rate of 1.1%, and increase of graupel particles concentration in warm layer is the main reason for rainfall increase. Due to the weak seeding operating conditions in the target cloud area, AgI seeding amount of this operation is relatively high, resulting in little effect of precipitation enhancement.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-09-05
  • 最后修改日期:2020-03-26
  • 录用日期:2020-05-06
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