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ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

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MJO对2018年华北夏季降水的影响
作者:
作者单位:

1.天津市气候中心;2.国际太平洋研究中心/夏威夷大学马诺分校大气科学学院

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金面上项目41875069


Impacts of MJO on Summer Precipitation in North China in 2018
Author:
Affiliation:

Tianjin Climate Center,Tainjin City,e-mail:hls@com

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    摘要:

    本文基于华北夏季降水资料和MJO指数、NCEP/NCAR再分析环流资料,采用多种统计方法分析MJO与华北夏季降水的关系及影响机制,结果表明:夏季,MJO与华北夏季降水有很好的联系,MJO进入5、6位相时,华北地区夏季会出现明显降水过程。在影响机制方面,MJO通过高、低层扰动向中高纬的传播,诱发在华北地区夏季出现有利的水汽输送异常和动力上升运动异常,从而造成华北夏季出现强降水过程。具体是,在水汽条件方面,MJO可以通过影响850hPa风场造成华北夏季偏南风水汽输送加强(对应RMM1)或东南风水汽输送加强(对应RMM2),从而有利于华北夏季降水过程发生;在动力上升条件方面,MJO通过影响500hPa贝加尔湖槽加深和朝鲜半岛附近副热带高压加强,以及华北上空对流层上升运动加强,从而有利于华北夏季降水过程发生。可以用MJO制作华北夏季延伸期降水过程预报。

    Abstract:

    Based on summer precipitation data from North China and MJO Index, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis circulation data, the paper uses a variety of statistical methods to analyze the relationship between MJO and summer precipitation in North China and its influence mechanism. The results show that: Summer, MJO has a good relationship with summer precipitation in North China. When MJO enters the 5th and 6th phases, there will be a clear precipitation process in summer in North China. In terms of the influence mechanism, MJO induced the occurrence of favorable water vapor transport anomaly in the summer of North China through the propagation of high and low disturbances to medium and high latitudes, resulting in the occurrence of heavy precipitation in North China during the summer. Specifically, in terms of water vapor conditions, MJO can enhance the transmission of south wind vapor (corresponding to RMM1) or southeast wind vapor(corresponding to RMM2) in North China by affecting the 850 hPa wind field, thus contributing to the occurrence of summer precipitation in North China; In terms of dynamic rising conditions, MJO has contributed to the summer precipitation process in North China by affecting the deepening of the 500 hPa Baikal trough and the strengthening of the subtropical high near the Korean peninsula, as well as the enhancement of the tropospheric upward movement over North China. MJO can be used to make extended period prediction of summer precipitation in North China.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-09-20
  • 最后修改日期:2019-12-12
  • 录用日期:2019-12-13
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