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CN 11-1768/O4

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1961~2016年中国春季极端低温事件的时空特征分析
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1.成都信息工程大学大气科学学院;2.中国科学院大气物理研究所;3.成都信息工程大学

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Spatial and temporal features of spring extreme low temperature in China during 1961-2016
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1.Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences;2.Chengdu University of Information Technology

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    摘要:

    利用1961~2016年中国529个台站逐日最低气温资料,研究了中国春季极端低温事件的时空变异特征。旋转经验正交分解结果显示,中国春季极端低温事件的频次在空间上可以分为5个区域,即东北—华北东部地区、江南地区、西北东部—华北西部地区、西南地区和新疆北部地区。小波分析表明,这5个区域极端低温频次在年际尺度上呈现出2~4年的振荡周期,其中江南地区、西北东部—华北西部地区和新疆北部地区2~4年的振荡周期在整个研究时段都显著,但东北—华北东部地区和西南地区2~4年的显著周期分别出现在20世纪80年代之前和80年代到90年代中期。在长期变化上,这5个地区极端低温的频次总体均呈减少趋势,但突变年份具有明显差异。Mann-Kendall和滑动t检验结果表明,东北—华北东部地区极端低温事件频次的突变时间为1987/1988年、江南地区为1995/1996年、西北东部—华北西部地区为1990/1991年、西南地区为1987/1988年、新疆北部地区为1997/1998年。伴随着极端低温频次的降低,5个地区极端低温事件的强度在过去半个多世纪也呈现出显著的下降趋势。但近10年来,中国东部地区春季极端低温事件的频次和强度却有所增加,需要引起关注。

    Abstract:

    Based on the daily minimum temperature data from 529 stations in China over the period of 1961-2016, the spatio-temporal features of spring extreme low temperature (ELT) events are investigated. The rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis indicates that, according to the variability of the ELT frequency, the whole China can be divided into five regions, which are Northeast China-eastern North China, the Jiangnan region, eastern Northwest China-western North China, Southwest China, and northern Xinjiang. The Morlet wavelet analysis shows that the ELT frequencies over the five regions exhibit a 2-4-year quasi-periodicity. Such a quasi-periodicity with 2-4-year is significant over the whole period for the Jiangnan region, eastern Northwest China-western North China, and northern Xinjiang, over the period before the early 1980s for Northeast China-eastern North China, and over the period between early 1980s and mid-1990s for Southwest China. For the long-term variation, the LET frequencies over all five regions exhibit decreasing trends, however their abrupt change years are different. The analysis using the Mann-Kendall (MK) and moving t-test (MTT) suggests that the abrupt change of the LET frequency occurs in 1987/1988 for Northeast China-eastern North China, 1995/1996 for the Jiangnan region, 1990/1991 for eastern Northwest China-western North China, 1987/1988 for Southwest China, and 1997/1998 for northern Xinjiang. Along with the decreasing of the LET frequency, the LET intensity over the five regions are weakened in the past half century. However, in recent 10 years, the frequency and intensity of the LET over eastern China are increased, which should be concerned.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-09-30
  • 最后修改日期:2019-12-07
  • 录用日期:2020-01-09
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