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ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

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我国冬季极端低温指数的年代际变化特征
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作者单位:

1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室;2.西藏那曲市气象局

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基金项目:

国家重点研发计划(2016YFA0600702)和国家自然科学基金面上项目(41575057和41975063)和国家科技支撑项目(2015BAC03B03)


Interdecadal variation of China"s Winter Extreme Cold Temperature Index
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Affiliation:

Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters CIC-FEMD/ Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education KLME / Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change ILCEC

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    摘要:

    前人在研究极端气温时,大多关注其长期变化趋势,而对其年代际变化的研究较少。本文利用1961~2016年全国839个台站的逐日最高气温、最低气温和日平均气温资料,重点分析了我国冬季极端低温指数的年代际变化特征。本文采用谐波分解提取了每个台站冬季极端低温指数前四波分量,将其作为年代际变化分量,并将其累计方差贡献大于25%的台站认为发生了明显的年代际变化的台站。结果表明:呈明显年代际变化的台站主要位于长江以北地区、新疆北部以及青藏高原东部地区。其中,长江以北地区及新疆北部地区的年代际变化在1979年后较为一致,据此可将1979年之后的时段大致划分为前冷期(1979~1986年)、暖期(1987~2007年)和后冷期(2008~2016年)三个时期。上述两个地区的冬季极端低温指数的年代际变化与东大西洋/西俄罗斯遥相关型联系在一起,该遥相关型的年代际变化对应着乌拉尔山阻塞型环流频次和东亚大槽强度的年代际变化。

    Abstract:

    The long-term trend of extreme temperature has been extensively explored by previous studies. In contrast, the interdecadal variation of extreme temperature is rarely documented. Based on the daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and daily temperature of 839 stations in China from 1961 to 2016, the interdecadal variations of winter extreme temperature index in China were analyzed. The first four wave components of the extreme temperature of each station are extracted by using harmonic decomposition, which is regarded as the interdecadal component. A station is regarded as the station that undergos an evident interdecadal variation if the cumulative variance explained by the interdecadal component is greater than 25%. The results show that the stations with evident interdecadal variation of winter extreme low temperature index are mainly located to the north of the Yangtze River, northern Xinjiang and eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The inter-decadal variation to the north of the Yangtze River and in northern Xinjiang are basically consistent after 1979. Accordingly, the period after 1979 can be divided into three periods: previous-cold period (1979~1986), warm period (1987~2007) and later-cold period (2008~2016). The inter-decadal variation of the extreme temperature indices of the stations over the above-mentioned two areas might be modulated by the interdecadal variation of East Atlantic/West Russia teleconnection type (EAWR), which corresponds to the interdecadal variation of both the frequency of blocking-like circulation over Ural Mountains and the amplitude of planetary trough over East Asia.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-11-10
  • 最后修改日期:2019-12-30
  • 录用日期:2020-05-07
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