双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

+高级检索 English
基于K-均值聚类方法的大气环流模式IAP AGCM4.1对西北太平洋热带气旋的模拟评估
作者:
作者单位:

1.成都信息工程大学;2.中国科学院大气物理研究所;3.山东大学

作者简介:

通讯作者:

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFB0200800),国家自然科学基金重点项目(61432018)


Evaluation of the Simulated Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific with IAP AGCM4.1 Based on K-means Method
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences;2.Shandong University

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
    摘要:

    IAP AGCM4.1(The Institute of Atmospheric Physics Atmospheric General Circulation Model, version 4.1)是中国科学院大气物理研究所自主研发的大气环流模式,也是中科院地球系统模式CAS-ESM1(The Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model, version 1)的大气分量模式。本文利用极端气候分析软件TECA(Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis),对IAP AGCM4.1模拟的1979-2012年西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)进行了识别与评估。结果表明IAP AGCM4.1模拟的TC空间分布、路径走向与生成源地与观测基本一致,但模拟的TC个数有所低估,仅为观测的36%。基于K-均值聚类方法的分类评估显示,这种低估主要体现在模式对于西北行转向类和西行类TC没有模拟能力。对于近海西-西北行类、西转向类和东转向类TC,模式模拟的个数可分别达到观测的39%,48%和85%,模拟的季节变化与观测的相关系数在0.89~0.91之间,周期误差在1~2天。就TC路径而言,模式对于近海西-西北行类和东转向类TC模拟效果较好,质心经度误差、质心纬度误差和经纬向标准差的模拟误差分别为1%-5%、4%-16%和5-15%。此外,环流合成分析表明模式很好的再现了东转向类TC发生发展期间环境流场的演变以及副热带高压的变化情况,模拟的副高强度和面积指数与观测的相关系数可达0.89。模式对西北行转向类和西行类TC模拟能力较差的原因可能与模式对副高的模拟偏差有关。

    Abstract:

    As the atmospheric component of the CAS-ESM1 (The Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model, version 1), IAP-AGCM4.1 (The Institute of Atmospheric Physics Atmospheric General Circulation Model, version 4.1) is developed independently by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics. The TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis) is used to identify and evaluate the simulated tropical cyclones (TC) over the western north Pacific with IAP AGCM4.1 during 1979 to 2012. The results show that the IAP AGCM4.1 can reproduce the TCs’ spatial distribution, track, and source reasonably compared to observation, while the model underestimates the number of TC, and only 36% of the observed tropical cyclones over the western north Pacific are simulated. Further analysis based on K-means clustering method shows that the underestimation is mostly due to inability to reproduce the northwestward-turning and westward TC. For the TCs with westward-northwestward, westward-turning and eastward-turning tracks, simulated numbers are about 39%, 48% and 85% of the observed ones, respectively. Moreover, correlation coefficients of seasonal variation between simulation and observation can reach up to 0.91 and duration biases are about 1~2 days. IAP AGCM4.1 performs well in simulating the tracks of the westward-northwestward and eastward-turning TC, with the relative biases ranging between 1%-5% for longitude of centroid, 4%-16% for latitude of centroid, and 5%-15% for latitudinal and meridional standard deviations. In addition, IAP AGCM4.1 reproduces the evolution of environmental circulation and subtropical high quite well during the lifetime of eastward-turning TC, as simulated strength and area index of subtropical high are highly correlated with observation (the correlation coefficient is 0.89). The poor simulations of northwestward-turning and westward TC are likely due to simulated biases of subtropical high.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2019-12-24
  • 最后修改日期:2020-04-01
  • 录用日期:2020-05-14
  • 在线发布日期:
  • 出版日期: