双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

珠三角关键大气挥发性有机物的模拟精度评估
作者:
作者单位:

1.成都信息工程大学;2.中国科学院大气物理研究所大气边界层物理和大气化学国家重点实验室

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基金项目:

国家重点研发计划课题;国家自然科学基金项目;广东省科技计划项目;广东省重点领域研发计划“污染防治与修复”专项


Simulation accuracy evaluation of key atmospheric VOCs in the Pearl River Delta
Author:
Affiliation:

State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

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    摘要:

    大气挥发性有机物(VOCs)是导致臭氧污染的关键前体物,是城市空气质量建模不可或缺的重要组成部分,但由于其非常复杂的构成和来源以及监测数据缺乏,目前对其模拟精度的了解仍非常有限。本文利用嵌套网格空气质量模式预报系统(NAQPMS)对珠三角地区2017年9月21日至11月20日的VOCs开展了模拟试验,并利用光化学监测网8个地面站点的VOCs浓度监测数据,对模式模拟的关键VOCs组分进行了精度评估。结果发现,模式对强活性的甲苯、乙烯和二甲苯具有较高的模拟精度,模拟浓度偏差百分比为0.4~26.6%,模拟能较好再现其日均浓度变化趋势和日变化的双峰特征。但是模式对化学反应活性强且与植物排放密切相关的异戊二烯具有很大的模拟偏差,偏差比近100%,无法再现其白天浓度高、夜间浓度低的观测日变化特征。通过分析发现,现有模拟系统主要考虑人为污染物排放而未考虑生物排放可能是导致这一模拟偏差的关键原因。同时,评估结果也表明模式在VOCs空间分布模拟上仍面临很大的不确定性。本文结果揭示了珠三角VOCs模拟面临的关键不确定性,表明融合VOCs观测数据来揭示并减小VOCs模拟的不确定性具有非常迫切的需求。

    Abstract:

    As the key precursors leading to ozone pollution, atmospheric volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are indispensable parts of urban air quality modeling. Due to their complex composition and the lack of monitoring data, the understanding of their simulation accuracy is still poor. In this paper, the nested grid air quality model prediction system (NAQPMS) is used to simulate VOCs in the Pearl River Delta region from September 21 to November 20, 2017. The VOCs concentration monitoring data from 8 ground stations of photochemical monitoring network is used to evaluate the accuracy of key VOCs components. The results show that the model has high simulation accuracy for toluene, ethylene and xylene with concentration deviation ratio of 0.4-26.6%, which can well reproduce the trend of daily average concentration and the double-peak characteristics of diurnal variation. However, the model has a large simulation deviation for isoprene with strong chemical reaction activity and closed relation to plant emissions. The deviation ratio is nearly 100%, which cannot reproduce the diurnal variation characteristics of high concentration in daytime and low concentration at night. It is found that the total amount of VOCs emitted by plants in the Pearl River Delta region is relatively large. However, the ignorance of biological VOCs emissions in the current simulation system may be the key reason for this simulation deviation. Besides, the results of simulation evaluation also show that the model still exists great uncertainty in the VOCs spatial distribution. This paper shows that there is an urgent need to combine VOCs observation data in the model to reveal and reduce the uncertainty of VOCs simulation.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2020-09-18
  • 最后修改日期:2021-01-25
  • 录用日期:2021-03-02
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