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ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

IPO、 AMO和全球变暖对北美地区降水的相对贡献
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1.南京信息工程大学大气科学学院;2.浙江省台州市三门县气象局

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国家重点研发计划2016YFA0600402


Relative Contributions of IPO, AMO and Global Warming to the Land Precipitation in North America
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School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

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    摘要:

    本文研究了1934-2018年期间太平洋年代际振荡(Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation,IPO)、大西洋年代际振荡(Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO)以及全球变暖(Global Warming,GW)对北美地区陆地降水年代际变化的相对贡献。首先通过对冬(12-2月)、夏季(6-8月)北美地区的陆地降水与中低纬地区的海表面温度进行奇异值分解分析,得到对北美陆地冬季降水相对贡献较大的主要海温模态为IPO(42.33%)和AMO(23.21%),夏季则为AMO(32.66%)和IPO(21.60%)。其次利用线性回归模型,分析三种信号分别对北美冬、夏季陆地降水的相对贡献及对北美陆地不同区域降水的相对重要性,结果表明AMO对夏季北美陆地降水变化的贡献最大,IPO次之,冬季则相反,GW对冬夏季北美陆地降水都有一定的贡献。夏季期间阿拉斯加地区AMO的贡献最大,约占65.8%,加拿大地区GW的贡献最大,约占44.5%,美国本土及墨西哥地区三者贡献基本一致;冬季期间阿拉斯加和加拿大地区GW的贡献最大,分别为62.3%和44.7%,美国本土和墨西哥地区IPO的贡献最大,分别为47.9%和71.5%。进一步利用信息流方法,验证了IPO、AMO、GW对降水的敏感性区域。最后运用全球大气环流模式ECHAM 4.6进一步确定了太平洋和大西洋海温异常对北美地区陆地降水变化的影响途径,结果表明印度洋海表面温度异常在AMO和IPO对北美陆地降水变化的作用中至关重要。

    Abstract:

    In this study, we investigate the relative contributions of interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) , Atlantic interdecadal oscillation (AMO) and global warming (GW) to decadal variation of land precipitation in North America from 1934 to 2018. Firstly, through the singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis for North American land precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) in middle and low latitudes, it is found that IPO (42.33%) and AMO (23.21%) are the main SST modes in winter, and AMO (32.66%) and IPO (21.60%) in summer, to affect the interdecadal variation of the land precipitation. Secondly, the linear regression model is used to analyze the relative contribution of the three signals. The results show that AMO contribute dominantly of North America in summer. IPO plays a role only secondary to IPO, and winter is the opposite. GW also plays an important role. In summer, AMO is the primary contributor to the changes of precipitation in Alaska; In Canada, GW dominates. In USA and Mexico, GW, AMO and IPO are of equal importance; In winter, GW is the primary contributor to the changes of precipitation in Alaska and Canada; IPO dominates in USA and Mexico. In terms of information flow, we have presented the regions of sensitivity to the three modes. We also apply ECHAM 4.6 model to further verify the above results, show that the Indian Ocean is pivotal in having AMO and IPO in effect in causing the precipitation variabilities.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-11-12
  • 最后修改日期:2021-01-18
  • 录用日期:2021-03-29
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