双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

气象要素对华北地区夏季植被覆盖度的影响模型研究
作者:
作者单位:

1.山西大学复杂系统研究所;2.中国气象局国家气候中心开放实验室

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通讯作者:

基金项目:

41875100、 42075057和42075029


Study on the influence model of meteorological elements on summer vegetation coverage in North China
Author:
Affiliation:

Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration

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    摘要:

    植被覆盖对气候变化极其敏感,华北区地处我国半湿润地区,气象因子对该地区植被覆盖有重要的影响,但缺少有效的数理模型定量刻画气象要素对植被的影响。因此,本文基于华北区2000-2018年中分辨率成像光谱仪的植被覆盖数据和主要气象要素数据,开展了气象要素影响植被覆盖度模型的研究,初步建立了华北夏季植被覆盖度与气象要素的关系。研究表明:(1)华北夏季植被覆盖度与降水、相对湿度呈正相关,与气温、日照时数和地温则呈负相关,相关性强弱顺序依次为同期日照时数、前一月地温、同期相对湿度、前一月气温和同期降水。(2)结合多元回归法和最小二乘法两种统计方法,从区域平均和空间分布角度分别构建了气象要素对植被覆盖度的影响模型,定量描述气象要素变化对植被覆盖度的可能影响。其中,五变量影响模型对植被覆盖度的模拟的相关系数略偏高,基于最小二乘法构建的模型对植被覆盖度的拟合效果较多元线性回归模型更好。(3)去除相对湿度的模型对华北地区植被覆盖变化的模拟能力变化最大,即温度和降水协同作用对华北地区植被覆盖的影响较为重要。研究有利于了解气象要素如何影响植被生态系统,进而为国家生态文明建设提供理论依据。

    Abstract:

    Vegetation coverage is extremely sensitive to climate change. North China located in a semi-humid area in my country. Meteorological factors have an important impact on vegetation coverage in this area, but there is a lack of effective mathematical models to quantitatively describe the impact of meteorological elements on vegetation. Therefore, we based on the vegetation coverage data of the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and main meteorological element data in North China during 2000 to 2018, carried out research on the influence of meteorological elements on vegetation coverage model, and initially established the relationship between summer vegetation coverage and meteorological elements in North China. Research shows: (1) Summer vegetation coverage in North China is positively correlated with precipitation and relative humidity, and negatively correlated with temperature, sunshine hours and ground temperature. The order of correlation is the sunshine hours of the same period, the ground temperature of the previous month, relative humidity of the same period, temperature of the previous month and precipitation of the same period. (2) Combining the two statistical methods of multiple regression method and least square method, the influence model of meteorological elements on vegetation coverage was constructed from the perspective of regional average and spatial distribution, and the possible influence of changes in meteorological elements to vegetation coverage was quantitatively described. Among, the 5-variable model has a slightly higher correlation coefficient for the simulation of vegetation coverage, and the model based on the least square method has a better fitting effect on vegetation coverage than the multiple linear regression model. (3) The model that removes the relative humidity has the largest change in the ability to simulate vegetation cover change in North China, that is, the synergistic effect of temperature and precipitation on vegetation cover in North China is more important. Research is conducive to understanding how meteorological elements affect the vegetation ecosystem, and then provides a theoretical basis for the construction of national ecological civilization.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-11-24
  • 最后修改日期:2021-02-08
  • 录用日期:2021-07-16
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