双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

未来30年亚洲降水情景预估及偏差订正
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作者单位:

1.中山大学大气科学学院;2.中国科学院东亚区域气候与环境重点实验室;3.中国气象科学研究院大气成分与环境气象研究所,北京 100081

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金


A Projection of Asian Precipitation for coming 30 years with Bias Correction
Author:
Affiliation:

1.RCE-TEA, Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP),Chinese Academy of Science(CAS);2.Laboratory for Atmospheric Chemistry LAC,Institute of Atmospheric Composition and Environment Meteorology,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences CAMS,China

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    摘要:

    借助第五次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)多模式集合数据及英国气候研究所(CRU)的格点降水资料,分析了多模式集合平均降水在亚洲的偏差分布特征,检验了三种减小偏差的方法,并预估了未来30年亚洲降水变化的趋势。结果表明,在CMIP5历史气候模拟中,多模式集合降水在亚洲存在明显偏差,在北方降水偏多,南方偏少,其中在青藏高原、内蒙古、蒙古国等地明显偏多达30%-40%,南亚偏少30%-40%,在越南和华南沿海偏少20-30%等。模式降水偏差型在2006-2015年预估与历史气候模拟中类似,具有准定常性,可以通过二者之差消去模式气候漂移。偏差订正检验表明,对数回归在北方较好,年际增量回归在南方更优,二者结合构成所谓区域组合回归偏差订正法,用其订正中等排放情景RCP4.5下24个CMIP5模式集合预估的2021-2050年亚洲降水,其相对于1976-2005的变化表明,随着气候暖化亚洲季风区降水格局会发生或多或少的变化,在暖季(5-10月),阿拉伯半岛东部、南亚西北部、伊朗南部、中亚北部及俄罗斯的远东地区,以及中国的西北东部、环渤海湾及东北部分地区降水可能增加6%-10%;中亚南部及伊朗北部等地降水可能减少10%左右,中国西南降水平均减少约3%。在冷季,亚洲北方降水普遍增加,南方降水有所减少,其中南亚降水明显减少,达6%-10%,中国西南部降水减少;中国西北大部、华北和东北等地, 以及蒙古国和亚洲高纬度地带降水明显增加,增幅可达10%或更多。这些预估结果表明,随着气候暖化,未来30年我国西南的旱情可能持续,冬半年北方雪灾会增加,随着南亚夏季风区的西扩,南亚西北部巴基斯坦等干旱地带出现洪水灾害的频率会增加,但里海南部周边地带可能出现持续几十年的严重干旱事件。对于未来30年中国的南方,尤其是西南地区可能出现持续、甚至加重的干旱气候事件,需要提前做好应对部署。

    Abstract:

    This study focuses on the bias characteristics of multi-model ensemble mean in precipitation basing on the grid datasets of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models and the observation (CRU TS 4.0). Three bias correction methods are tested and then a projection on precipitation is made for coming 30 years. Results shows that the model precipitation is overestimated in northern Asia and underestimated in the South, with 30%-40% more precipitation in Qinhai-Tibetan plateau, Inner Mongolia and Mongolia, and 20%-30% less in southern coast of China mainland and Vietnam, and 30%-40% less in South Asia than the observation. The similar bias pattern is found in 2006-2015 precipitation projected under RCP4.5 with CMIP5 historical climate simulation, implying that the bias pattern is almost stationary, belonging the model climate drift which can be removed through the difference between a period-mean projection and the historical simulation averaged over a period. Bias correction test confirms that the logarithm regression (LR) is better in the North than year-to-year increment regression (YYIR), whereas the YYIR is better in the South than LR. The combination of the YYIR and LR is applied in the bias correction of the 2021-2050 precipitation projection under RCP4.5. The projection shows a change in precipitation pattern versus 1976-2005, such as 6%-10% increase in warm season (May-October) precipitation in Arabian Peninsula, northwest part of South Asia, southern Iron, northern part of Central Asia, the Far East of Russia, the east part of Northwest China, the northeast part of China and the coast belt around the Bohai Sea; the precipitation would decrease by about 10% in the south part of Central Asia and northern Iron, about 3% reduction in Southwest China mainland. As for the cold/cool season (November to next April) the precipitation projected would increase in the North, especially in high latitude area, and decrease in the South, such as about 6%-10% decrease in South Asia, about 10% drop in Northwest China, North China, Northeast China, Mongolia and high-latitude Asian continent. Hence, climate warming would expand the area of South Asian monsoon westward leading more frequent rainfall with flood in the dry land of Northwest South Asia, like Pakistan, whereas severe drought would likely appear in the area around southern Caspian Sea. It must be noticed that the weak decrease of the precipitation in South China mainland in the projection may imply a severe drought for coming 30 years due to the increase in surface evaporation with temperature warming. So, a preparation should be made against the potential risk of the drought for coming 30 years.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-12-04
  • 最后修改日期:2021-04-25
  • 录用日期:2021-06-15
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