双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

青藏高原中东部地表感热趋势转折特征的季节差异
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1.南京信息工程大学大气科学学院;2.兰州大学大气科学学院

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国家自然科学基金


Seasonal differences in the trend transition characteristics of the surface sensible heat on the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau
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    摘要:

    本文利用气候变化趋势转折判别模型(PLFIM),分析了1982-2018年青藏高原中东部70个气象站点地表感热趋势演变特征的季节差异,并利用方差分析方法定量评估了影响不同季节地表感热变化的关键气象要素。结果显示:(1)高原中东部四季平均地表感热通量均存在显著趋势转折特征,整体来看,秋、冬季转折时间稍早(1999年),春、夏季稍晚(2000年);分区来看,高原Ⅱ区(东部)的转折时间最早,其次是Ⅳ区(东南部)和Ⅰ区(北部),Ⅲ区(西南部)的转折时间最晚。在地表感热趋势转折之前,以夏季的感热减弱最突出,其次为春季和秋季,冬季最弱;在感热趋势转折之后,冬季的地表感热的增强最强,其他季节增强趋势相当。冬季和春季高原地表感热趋势转折的关键区分别在高原的东部和南部,夏、秋季的关键区主要为高原的Ⅱ区(东部)和Ⅲ区(西南部)。(2)在高原地表感热趋势转折之前,地面风速的减小对四季地表感热的减弱趋势均有重要贡献,但高原冬季地表感热的年际变化受地气温差的变化所主导;春、秋季受地气温差和地面风速变化的共同影响;夏季以地面风速的影响占优势。在地表感热趋势转折之后,秋、冬季地面风速的增大和地气温差的加大,共同导致了地表感热的趋势转折,但地表感热的年际变化由地气温差的变化所主导;春季地气温差的加大是地表感热趋势转折的主因,同时地气温差也在地表感热年际变化的影响中占优势;夏季地面风速的显著增大导致了地表感热趋势的转折,但地表感热的年际变化由地气温差和地面风速变化共同影响。

    Abstract:

    In this paper, the Piecewise Linear Fitting Model (PLFIM) was used to analyze the seasonal differences of the Surface Sensible Heat (SSH) trend evolution characteristics at 70 meteorological stations on the Central and Eastern Tibetan Plateau (CETP) during1982-2018, and the key meteorological factors influencing the changes of the SSH in different seasons were quantitatively evaluated using the analysis of variance method. Results show that: (1) the seasonal average SSH fluxes in the CETP have a trend transition feature in all four seasons, as a whole, the trend transition time of autumn and winter is earlier (1999), and spring and summer is later (2000); regionally speaking, the turning time is earliest in Zone II (Eastern part of TP), followed by Zone IV (Southeastern part of TP) and Zone I (Northern part of TP), and the turning time is latest in Zone III (Southwestern part of TP). Before the trend transition time, the weakening of the SSH is most prominent in summer, followed by spring and autumn, and weakest in winter; after the trend transition time, the enhancement of the SSH is strongest in winter, and the enhancement trend is similar in other seasons. In winter and spring, the key areas for the trend transition of the SSH are in the eastern and southern of TP, respectively, while in summer and autumn, the key areas are mainly in Zone II and III. (2) Before the trend transition time, the decrease of the surface wind speed has an important contribution to the decreasing trend of the SSH in four seasons, but the interannual variation of the SSH in winter is dominated by the change of ground-air temperature difference; in spring and autumn are affected by both the variations of ground-air temperature difference and surface wind speed; and in summer is dominated by the surface wind speed. After the trend transition time, the increases of the surface wind speed and surface-air temperature difference in autumn and winter jointly lead to the trend turning of the SSH, but the interannual variation of the SSH is dominated by the variation of ground-air temperature difference; the increase of ground-air temperature difference in spring is the main cause of the trend turning of the SSH, and the ground-air temperature difference also plays a dominant role in the influence of the interannual variation of the SSH; the significant increase of surface wind speed in summer leads to the trend turning of the SSH, but the interannual variation of the SSH is affected by both the ground-air temperature difference and the surface wind speed.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-02-04
  • 最后修改日期:2021-05-13
  • 录用日期:2021-05-25
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