双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

分析约束的集合预报初始扰动构造方案的初步研究
作者:
作者单位:

1.南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室;2.河南省气象探测数据中心;3.中国民航西南地区空中交通管理局气象中心

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国家重点基础研究发展计划


Preliminary study on the initial perturbation of ensemble forecast with analysis constraints
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science Technology;2.Henan Meteorological Observation Data Center;3.Meteorological Center of CAAC Southwest Air Traffic Administration

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    摘要:

    集合预报初始扰动准确描述大气运动的不确定性是集合预报研究的核心问题,合理的扰动结构及振幅应能更好地反映大气运动状态的预报误差特征。随着集合扰动和资料同化的深入研究和理解,集合初始扰动方案与集合同化紧密结合协同发展。本文基于中国气象局数值预报中心自主研发的GRAPES-REPS集合预报系统,针对其初始扰动的结构和振幅与预报误差一致性较差的不合理问题,结合不同空间尺度天气系统预报误差特征,将表征预报不确定性的集合扰动与表达观测和预报不确定性的资料同化分析增量的关系有效结合,研究提出了一种改善集合初始扰动质量的分析约束方案,以实现对集合初始扰动质量进一步改善。分析约束方案充分考虑资料同化的分析增量的空间结构和量值特征,分别构造了单一定常和具有一定适应能力的两种分析约束函数,实现对初始扰动中不合理信息的识别和约束调整。试验结果表明,具有适应能力的分析约束方案对集合初始扰动具有良好的约束能力,约束后集合扰动的结构和振幅与中小尺度天气系统的预报误差更为吻合,其集合离散度和扰动能量的空间结构与演变特征更加趋于合理。分析约束方案可有效改善集合初始扰动质量及其预报性能。

    Abstract:

    Whether perturbation can accurately describe the uncertainty of atmospheric motion is the core issue of ensemble forecasting research. A reasonable perturbation structure and amplitude should be able to reflect the characteristics of forecast error about the state of atmospheric motion. For solving the problems of insufficient spread, recognizability and reliability of perturbation in GRAPES regional ensemble forecast, this paper designs and develops different schemes to constrain initial ensemble perturbation with analysis error extracted from data assimilation system, in the light of the relationship of structure and evolution characteristics between ensemble perturbation and the forecast errors of weather systems at different scales. This study analyzes the spatial physical structure and spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ensemble perturbation, spread and perturbation energy, in order to comprehensively assess the quality and performance of the analysis-constrained schemes. The results show that the schemes can partly identify and adjust the false perturbation in the original forecast. After constraining, the structure and evolution of the perturbation are in better agreement with the development of weather systems at different scales, with higher accuracy to describe the forecasting uncertainty. The feature that spread and perturbation energy increases with the forecast time is also more significant, especially in the early period.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2021-02-08
  • 最后修改日期:2021-03-30
  • 录用日期:2021-05-19
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