双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

印度洋偏暖对春末夏初西天山极端降水的影响研究
作者:
作者单位:

1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室;2.扬州大学物理科学与技术学院

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基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目“中亚极端降水演变特征及预报方法研究(2018YFC1507101)”与国家自然科学基金面上项目“自然变率和人类活动影响中亚极端降水长期变化的归因与预估研究(41975115)”


Influence of Indian Ocean Warming on Extreme Precipitation in the Western Tianshan Mountains from Late Spring to Early Summer
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology;2.College of Physics Science and Technology, Yangzhou University

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    摘要:

    利用NOAA(美国国家海洋和大气管理局)气候预测中心的逐日格点降水资料分析了春末夏初(5、6月)天山极端降水时空变化以及印度洋海盆一致模(IOBM)影响天山极端降水的机制。结果表明:春末夏初天山极端降水变化具有明显的空间差异,西天山地区极端降水显著增加,其他区域极端降水变化不显著。诊断分析和数值模式模拟结果表明,春末夏初西天山地区极端降水增加与同期IOBM正异常促进冷暖气流在西天山地区交汇有关。IOBM正异常,一方面有利于东欧至中亚北部反气旋异常加强,促进冷空气向南输送。另一方面使得印度洋海温非均匀增暖,产生异常垂直环流,其下沉支使阿拉伯海和印度半岛产生反气旋异常,异常反气旋和偏南气流共同促进印度洋暖湿水汽向西天山输送,从而有利于西天山地区极端降水增加。

    Abstract:

    The daily grid precipitation data of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is used to analyze the spatial-temporal change of extreme precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains from late spring to early summer (May and June) and the mechanism of Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) on extreme precipitation. The results show obvious spatial variations of extreme precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains from late spring to early summer. Extreme precipitation in the Western Tianshan Mountains significantly increased, while other regions hardly varied. The diagnosed and numerical simulation results consistently showed that the increase of extreme precipitation in the Western Tianshan Mountains related to the coetaneous positive anomaly of IOBM which promoted the convergence of warm and cold airflows in the Western Tianshan Mountains. On the one hand, the positive anomaly of IOBM strengthened the anomalous anticyclonic located in the eastern Europe to north central Asia which promoted the cold airflow southward transportation. On the other hand, it induced the non-uniform warming of Indian Ocean, which resulted abnormal vertical circulation and its subsidence caused the anticyclone anomalies in the Arabian Sea and the Indian peninsula. The anomalous anticyclone and southerly airflow jointly conveyed warm moisture from the Indian Ocean to the Western Tianshan Mountains, which was conducive to the increase of extreme precipitation in the Western Tianshan Mountains.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2021-06-17
  • 最后修改日期:2021-08-12
  • 录用日期:2021-12-07
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-01-05
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