Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education/International Joint Laboratory on Climate and Environment ChangeILCEC/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersCIC-FEMD/Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
本研究利用WRF-Chem（Weather Research and Forecasting model with online coupled chemistry）模式对未来中国北方沙尘起沙过程变化进行了模拟预测。为了提高预测结果的准确度，研究综合考虑了气溶胶、温室气体和植被覆盖率等因素对天气、气候和起沙过程的影响。预测结果显示，2016～2029年西北部沙尘源地起沙量高于北部沙尘源地，地形和气候的差异是导致两地起沙过程及其季节变化差异的主要原因。两个沙尘源地四季起沙通量呈总体减少而部分季节增加的趋势，西北部沙尘源地起沙通量在春季总体呈上升趋势，在夏、秋和冬季呈下降趋势；北部沙尘源地起沙通量在春、夏和冬季呈下降趋势，在秋季呈微弱上升趋势。两个沙尘源地各季起沙通量的变化趋势由近地面风速主导，植被覆盖率、降水和地面温度等因素对起沙通量的年际波动有着重要影响。
In this paper, WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting model with online coupled chemistry) model is employed to study the future changes of dust emission in Northern China. In order to improve the accuracy of the prediction results, the study comprehensively considers the influence of factors such as aerosols, greenhouse gases and vegetation fraction on the weather, climate and dust emission processes. The prediction shows, from 2016 to 2029, that the amount of dust emission in the northwestern dust source region is higher than that in the northern dust source region, and the differences of topography and climate lead to the differences of dust emission processes and their seasonal variations in the two regions. The seasonal mean dust emission fluxes in the northwestern and the northern from 2016 to 2029 show general decreasing trends, while some seasons show increasing trends. The dust emission flux in the northwestern shows a weak increasing trend in spring, and decreasing trends in summer, autumn and winter. The dust emission flux in the northern dust source region shows decreasing trends in spring, summer and winter, and a weak increasing trend in autumn. The variation trends of dust emission fluxes in the two regions are dominated by near-surface wind speed, while vegetation fraction, precipitation and surface temperature have important effects on the interannual fluctuation of dust emission fluxes.