双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

1961—2018年中国地表温度变化的区域差异
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中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

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国家自然科学基金,国家重点基础研究规划项目


Regional differences in surface temperature variation in China from1961 to 2018
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Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences

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    摘要:

    IPCC指出增温应包涵三方面,即均值偏移、变率增大、对称性改变。然而,目前对于地表增温主要关注的仍是均值的变化,这会影响对于地表增温的全面认识。本研究基于1961—2018年590个气象站点的逐日温度数据,利用平均温度,温度方差和高温时间分别量化了均值偏移、变率增大、对称性改变3个指标,进而分析了中国地表温度变化趋势的空间格局。结果发现,在研究时段内平均温度呈现明显的增加趋势,但在1986年前后存在两个相反的变化趋势:1986年前,平均温度为减小趋势,而1986年后为显著增温趋势。在1961—2018年,高温时间出现提前的站点数(63.6%)多于出现滞后的站点数(36.4%)。温度方差在1961—1986年为明显的减小趋势,但在1986—2018年为明显的增大趋势。此外,平均温度,温度方差和高温时间的变化具有明显的空间异质性。具体而言:1961—1986年,高温时间推迟,平均温度下降,温度方差下降的站点数最多,占总站点数的23.9%,主要分布在亚热带地区;而1986—2018年,高温时间推迟,平均温度上升,温度方差增大的站点数量最多,占到总站点数的41.5%,空间分布不均。各温度指标年际变异的空间格局,体现了中国不同地区对地表增温的敏感性差异。同时关注平均温度、温度方差和高温时间变化能较全面反映气候系统变化的特点,有助于预估未来气候变化风险,对于国家制定气候变化减缓和适应战略具有重要意义。

    Abstract:

    The IPCC indicates that warming should include three types of shifted mean, increased variability, and changed symmetry. However, at present, the main concern of warming is still shifted mean, which affects the overall understanding of surface warming. In this study, based on daily temperature data from 590 meteorological stations during 1961—2018, we quantified indicators of shifted mean, increased variability, and changed symmetry using mean temperature, temperature variance, and high-temperature date, respectively. Then we revealed the spatial pattern of trends in mean temperature, temperature variance, and high-temperature date across China. It was found that, although the mean temperature exhibited a significant increasing trend over the whole study period, the trend was reversed around 1986, with a decreasing trend before 1986 and a significant warming trend after 1986. During 1961—2018, the number of stations with an advance in the high-temperature date (63.6%) was greater than that with a delay (36.4%). In addition, the temperature variance showed a significant decreasing trend from 1961 to 1986, but a notable increasing trend from 1986 to 2018. Overall, variation in mean temperature, temperature variance, and high-temperature date had large spatially heterogeneity. From 1961 to 1986, the stations with delayed high-temperature date, decreasing mean temperature, and decreasing temperature variance were the most numerous, accounting for 23.9% of the total, and mainly distributed in the subtropical region; while during 1986 to 2018, the stations showing a delayed high-temperature date as well as increases in mean temperature and temperature variance were the most numerous, accounting for 41.5% of observed stations, with a more scattered spatial distribution. The regional variability in the trend changes of different temperature indicators reflects the heterogeneity of global change sensitivity in different regions. Therefore, studies that simultaneously focus on the changes of mean temperature, high-temperature date, and temperature variance can better reflect the characteristics of climate change and help predict the future climate change risk, which is of great significance to develop mitigation and adaptation policy frameworks for climate change in China.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-07-21
  • 最后修改日期:2022-04-28
  • 录用日期:2022-06-16
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