双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

我国冬季干、湿低温灾害的时空分布特征分析
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作者单位:

1.南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/大气科学学院;2.吉林省长白山气象局

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基金项目:

国家重点基础研究发展计划2019YFC1510201; 国家级大学生创新训练项目202110300001Z


Temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of winter cold hazards with and without precipitation in China
Author:
Affiliation:

Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education KLME/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change ILCEC/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters CIC–FEMD,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,China

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    摘要:

    基于1980—2019年11月至翌年3月全国低温灾害性天气文字信息,结合高精度再分析资料NASA MERRA2,构建了我国低温灾害(低温、降温、冰冻、雨雪、雪灾)的精细化格点数据,采用线性趋势分析、集合经验模态分解(EEMD)和小波分析等方法研究了我国低温灾害的时空分布特征,初步描绘了我国低温灾害图谱。研究表明:干低温灾害(低温、降温、冰冻)往往不单一灾种致灾,而湿低温灾害(雨雪、雪灾)多为单一灾种致灾。不同灾种的发生频次具有显著的区域和季节内差异:1月低温的致灾范围最广,发生频次由南向北呈现“高-低-次高”的三极型分布;降温灾害在12月发生频次最多,呈“东高西低”分布;雨雪灾害在1-2月的南方地区发生最多;雪灾发生频次明显多于前四个灾种,多分布在牧区等高敏感地带。就全国而言,干低温和雨雪灾害的发生频次和受灾面积呈现长期增加趋势,而雪灾则在前后冬有相反趋势,其受灾面积的上升趋势主要来自1月,发生频次的减少趋势来自3月;干低温和雨雪灾害的灾情指数的年代际变率在2000s之后波动增加,而雪灾则在2000s之前变率较大;大部分低温灾种(除雪灾)发生频次的年际变率在2005年后均有显著增加。单一灾种中,仅降温受灾面积有显著的增加趋势,主要归因于1月。复合灾种中,降温与湿低温的组合呈显著上升。

    Abstract:

    Based on the nationwide records of cold weather hazards combined with the high-precision reanalysis data NASA MERRA2 during wintertime (November-March) in the period of 1980-2020, a daily dataset of low-temperature disasters (low temperature, abrupt temperature drop, freezing, rain&snow, and snowstorm) in China has been constructed. Using linear trend analysis, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method, and wavelet analysis, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of various kinds of cold hazards in China are studied. Results show that cold hazards without precipitation (low temperature, abrupt temperature drop, and freezing) are often co-caused by two or more kinds of cold hazards, while cold hazards with precipitation (rain&snow and snowstorm) are mostly caused by a single kind. The occurrence frequency of different kinds of cold hazards has significant regional and seasonal differences: the low temperature hazard had the widest affected area in January, and the occurrence frequency presents a "high-low-subhigh" distribution pattern from south to north; The frequency of abrupt temperature drop hazard occurred the most in December, whose occurrence frequency is "high in the East and low in the west"; Rain& snow hazard occurred most in southern China from January to February; The occurrence of snowstorm hazard is significantly more frequent than the other four kinds of cold hazards, mostly distributed in susceptible regions such as pastoral areas. As far as the whole country is concerned, the frequency and affected area of most cold hazards (except snowstorm) show a long-term increasing trend. The snowstorm hazard, however, has an increasing trend in the affected area, mainly contributed from January, and a decreasing trend in the frequency, mainly contributed from March. The interdecadal variability of the occurrence and affected area of most cold hazards (except snowstorm) increased after 2000s, while the interdecadal variability of snowstorm is greater before 2000s; The interannual variability of the frequency of cold hazards (except snowstorm) increased significantly after 2005. For single-kind disasters, only the affected area of abrupt temperature drop hazard showed a significant increasing trend, mainly due to January. For the compound-kind cold hazards, the combination of abrupt temperature drop and cold hazards with precipitation increased significantly.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-08-04
  • 最后修改日期:2021-11-10
  • 录用日期:2021-12-03
  • 在线发布日期: 2021-12-06
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