双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

共享社会经济路径(SSPs)下未来30年长江流域夏季降水预估
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作者单位:

1.中国地质大学(武汉);2.中国科学院大气物理研究所

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金


Projection of summer rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin in the future 30 years under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
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Institute of Atmospheric Physics and Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences

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    摘要:

    本文利用国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)中22个全球气候模式试验数据,通过MR评分(Comprehensive Rating Metrics)方法进行评估,择优选取了GFDL-CM4、EC-Earth3、MIROC6等10个模式,使用这些模式在SSP245和SSP585两种共享社会经济路径下的预估试验数据,对未来30年(2021-2050年)长江流域夏季降水,特别是极端降水事件的时空演变特征,进行了预估。结果显示,两种不同排放情景下,相对于1980-2010年的平均,流域总降水量(PRCPTOT)、降水强度(SDII)均呈现显著增加趋势,特别是在上游高原和中下游平原地区;降水频次(R1mm)上游减少,中下游增加,二者相抵导致了流域降水频次整体变化不明显;强降水(R95p)增加约9.6%、16.5% (SSP245、SSP585),极端降水(R99p)增加约10.2%、15.5%,最大5日降水量(RX5day)也为增长趋势;连续无降水日数(CDD)在整个流域呈现增多,特别是上游地区。两种排放情景相比较,高情景(SSP585)下的变化强度要比中低情景(SSP245)大。这些结果意味着,未来30年长江流域降水气候可能变得更为极端,不仅总降水量增加,暴雨、大暴雨易于出现,而且连续无雨日长度也增加,干旱变得更为频繁。特别地,中下游地区要警惕发生极端暴雨、极端洪涝的风险,而上游地区要警惕发生干旱、极端干旱的风险。

    Abstract:

    Based on historical experiments of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6), 22 models are systematically evaluated by Comprehensive Rating Metrics (MR). Then 10 models (GFDL-CM4, EC-Earth3, MIROC6, etc.) with reliable performance are chosen to project summer rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin in the future 30 years (2021-2050) under SSP245 and SSP585. The results suggest the total rainfall amount (PRCPTOT), and rainfall intensity (SDII) are projected to be relatively an increased trend by comparison with that in 1981-2010, and the large increase is located in the upper plateau and the middle-lower plains. In contrast, the occurrence of rainfall (R1mm) shows a little change because of opposite signal in upper and middle-lower reaches. The heavy rainfall (R95p) is projected to increase by 9.6% and 16.5% (SSP245 and SSP585), and extreme rainfall (R99p) is projected to increase by 10.2% and 15.5%. The maximum 5-day rainfall (RX5day) also exhibits an enhanced signal. Besides, the maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) will increase especially in upper reaches. As for different SSPs, the changes in SSP585 are greater than those in SSP245. These indicate there will be not only more rainfall amount and more occurrences of heavy-extreme rainfall events, but also a larger potential increase of droughts. Particularly, an increasing risk of the extreme rainfalls and floods in the middle and lower reaches and drought in the upper reaches deserve more attentions.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2021-08-17
  • 最后修改日期:2021-12-31
  • 录用日期:2022-04-20
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-05-09
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