双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

华南冬季雾日年际变化特征及其与ENSO的关系
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1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室;2.南京信息工程大学;3.广东省气候中心

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国家自然科学基金


Interannual Variability of Winter Fog Days over Southern China and Its Relationship With ENSO
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1.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters CICFEMD / Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education KLME / Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change ILCEC,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;2.Guangdong Climate Center

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    摘要:

    本文基于1979-2016年华南地区52个台站逐日雾观测数据和ERA5再分析资料等,采用EOF分解等多种统计方法,研究了ENSO对华南冬季雾日年际变化的影响,并进一步探讨了华南冬季雾日年际变化与ENSO关系的年代际转变。结果表明:(1)华南地区冬季雾日具有区域一致的变化特征,呈现出明显的年际变化和线性增加的趋势。在冬季,华南地区近地面层北风减弱,大气层结更加稳定,同时温度露点差降低,空气中水汽含量增加,为雾的形成提供了有利的背景场条件。(2)ENSO与华南地区冬季雾日的年际变化存在显著相关关系,在El Nino年的冬季,菲律宾海上空存在一个异常的反气旋环流,反气旋西侧的异常暖湿西南气流给华南地区带来充沛的水汽,有利于雾日的形成。La Nina年雾日的变化则与El Nino年相反。这种显著相关关系主要取决于大雾日数,而非轻雾日数。(3)ENSO与华南地区冬季雾日年际变化的关系在1996年前后出现明显年代际转折,在1979-1996年期间,两者相关性较弱,1997年之后相关性显著增强。这种关系的转变可能受到北大西洋年代际振荡(Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,AMO)的调控。

    Abstract:

    Based on the observed daily fog data from 52 meteorological stations in southern China and ERA5 reanalysis data from 1979 to 2016, effects of ENSO on the interannual variability of winter fog days over southern China and the interdecadal variation of the relationship between them are investigated using the EOF analysis and other statistical methods. Results are shown as follows: (1) The winter fog days over southern China (WFDSC) exhibit a whole-region consistent pattern and display evident interannual variability and significant increasing trend. The WFDSC is closely related to the weakened northerly wind, more stable atmosphere and the decreasing T-Td near surface, which implies that the water vapor in air is increasing, providing favorable meteorological background fields for the maintenance and development of fog over southern China. (2) There is a close relationship between ENSO and the interannual variability of WFDSC, which mainly depends on heavy fog days rather than light fog days. During El Nino winters, an anomalous anticyclone tends to occur over the Philippine Sea, and the warm moist anomaly southwesterlies on the western flank of this anticyclone brings abundant water vapor to southern China, conducive to the fog formation. Roughly opposite changes of fog days occur during La Nina winters. (3) The interannual ENSO-WFDSC relationship exhibits an obvious interdecadal change around 1996, with a low correlation during the period of 1979-1996 but a high correlation after 1997. A further analysis shows that this change in the relationship might be modulated by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2021-08-22
  • 最后修改日期:2022-02-24
  • 录用日期:2022-03-02
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-04-11
  • 出版日期: