双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

新疆温度和降水变化的CMIP6模式预估
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1.中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院;2.中国科学院大气物理研究所

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国家自然科学基金项目41991284


Future projections of temperature and precipitation over Xinjiang based on CMIP6 models
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Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

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    摘要:

    本文使用国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)中对新疆当代温度和降水模拟能力较好的20个模式的试验数据,在三种共享社会经济路径(SSPs)情景下,预估了新疆21世纪温度和降水的年和季节变化。根据多模式中位数,相对于1995~2014年,新疆21世纪不断升温,盆地增幅大于山区。在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下,2015~2099年年平均增温趋势分别为0.1℃/10a、0.3℃/10a和0.7℃/10a;2080~2099年区域平均分别升温1.3℃、2.6℃和5.3℃,其中夏季增幅最大。各模式预估的年和季节温度变化符号的区域平均一致性大于90%,模式结果间不确定性范围随时间增加,SSP5-8.5情景下的不确定性较SS1-2.6和SSP2-4.5的更大;除春季外,模式对其它季节温度预估的不确定性高于年平均。新疆21世纪降水不断增加,降水百分比变化的大值区位于塔里木盆地中部,末期SSP5-8.5情景下增幅超过50%。在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下,2015~2099年年降水增幅分别是0.2%/10a、2%/10a和4%/10a;2080~2099年区域平均降水分别增加5%、13%和25%,其中冬季降水增幅更大。各模式预估的新疆降水变化符号的一致性较好,且随时间有所提高,但仍较温度的小;对新疆降水百分比变化预估的不确定性范围随时间增加,其中在SSP5-8.5情景下的最大;各季节降水预估的不确定性较年平均偏大。

    Abstract:

    In this study, we project the changes in temperature and precipitation over Xinjiang during 2015~2099 relative to 1995~2014 by using 20 global climate models, which have good performance in simulating climatological temperature and precipitation over this region, from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Multi-model median results indicate that annual and seasonal temperatures will increase during the 21st century, with larger values in the basins than in the mountains. The trends of annual temperature changes under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 are 0.1 ℃/10a, 0.3 ℃/10a, and 0.7 ℃/10a, respectively. The regionally averaged temperature will increase by 1.3 ℃, 2.6 ℃, and 5.3 ℃ during 2080~2099, with the strongest warming occurring in summer. The regionally averaged consistency in sign of projected annual and seasonal temperature changes is larger than 90%, and the inter-model uncertainty will increase with time, with larger values under SSP5-8.5 than those under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5. Larger uncertainties occur in the projection of seasonal temperatures than that of annual case, except for spring. Precipitation is expected to increase over Xinjiang during the 21st century. The maximum increase of more than 50% locates in the central Tarim Basin under the SSP5-8.5 scenario during 2080~2099. Under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, the trends of annual precipitation changes from 2015 to 2099 are 0.2%/10a, 2%/10a, and 4%/10a, respectively, and annual precipitation increases by a regional average of 5%, 13%, and 25% during 2080~2099. The largest increase in precipitation occurs in winter. The inter-model consistency in sign of projected annual and seasonal precipitation changes increases with time but is weaker than its temperature counterparts. The inter-model uncertainty for precipitation projections will increase with time, with the largest magnitude under SSP5-8.5. The inter-model uncertainty of seasonal precipitation projections are larger than that of the annual case.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2021-09-20
  • 最后修改日期:2022-01-08
  • 录用日期:2022-01-18
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-01-20
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