Abstract:In this study, we project the changes in temperature and precipitation over Xinjiang during 2015~2099 relative to 1995~2014 by using 20 global climate models, which have good performance in simulating climatological temperature and precipitation over this region, from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Multi-model median results indicate that annual and seasonal temperatures will increase during the 21st century, with larger values in the basins than in the mountains. The trends of annual temperature changes under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 are 0.1 ℃/10a, 0.3 ℃/10a, and 0.7 ℃/10a, respectively. The regionally averaged temperature will increase by 1.3 ℃, 2.6 ℃, and 5.3 ℃ during 2080~2099, with the strongest warming occurring in summer. The regionally averaged consistency in sign of projected annual and seasonal temperature changes is larger than 90%, and the inter-model uncertainty will increase with time, with larger values under SSP5-8.5 than those under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5. Larger uncertainties occur in the projection of seasonal temperatures than that of annual case, except for spring. Precipitation is expected to increase over Xinjiang during the 21st century. The maximum increase of more than 50% locates in the central Tarim Basin under the SSP5-8.5 scenario during 2080~2099. Under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, the trends of annual precipitation changes from 2015 to 2099 are 0.2%/10a, 2%/10a, and 4%/10a, respectively, and annual precipitation increases by a regional average of 5%, 13%, and 25% during 2080~2099. The largest increase in precipitation occurs in winter. The inter-model consistency in sign of projected annual and seasonal precipitation changes increases with time but is weaker than its temperature counterparts. The inter-model uncertainty for precipitation projections will increase with time, with the largest magnitude under SSP5-8.5. The inter-model uncertainty of seasonal precipitation projections are larger than that of the annual case.