双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

雨滴谱分布参数化对改进新疆强降水过程预报的评估研究
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作者单位:

1.中国科学院大气物理研究所云降水物理与强风暴重点实验室;2.中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院;3.北京城市气象研究院;4.兰州大学大气科学学院;5.郑州大学信息工程学院

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国家重点基础研究发展计划


Evaluation of Parameterization of Raindrop Size Distribution on Improving the Prediction of Heavy Precipitation Process in Xinjiang
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Institute of Urban Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration CMA;2.Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms LACS,Institute of Atmospheric Physics IAP,Chinese Academy of Sciences CAS;3.College of Earth and Planetary Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences UCAS

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    摘要:

    本文利用2018年7月3日-2018年10月3日新疆乌鲁木齐的雨滴谱观测资料,改进了乌鲁木齐区域高分辨率数值预报系统中WRF模式的WSM6单参数方案,对新疆2021年6月15日12时-17日00时一次强降水过程的预报改进效果进行评估研究。结果表明:观测显示,乌鲁木齐地区雨滴平均直径(D0)、最大直径(Dmax)和质量加权平均直径(Dm)分别为0.65 mm、1.60 mm和0.93 mm。引入新疆地区参数lgNw和Dm拟合关系的WSM6-new方案对降水强度和强中心范围的预报能力均有一定提高。从TS、BR、ETS和TSS四个指标的评分结果上看,随着降雨等级的增加,WSM6-new方案预报能力相比WSM6方案明显提高,对于大雨和暴雨的预报显示出明显的优势。不同雨滴谱分布参数化方案对降水云系结构特征、垂直速度、大气层结和散度场都有着一定的影响,对于云微物理过程的影响主要体现在雨水含量和分布上。WSM6-new方案引入了新疆雨滴谱统计特征,在模式中对雨滴谱分布的描述更接近实际。雨滴谱的大雨滴数浓度明显增加,雨滴下落末速度增加,拖曳作用增强,有利于零度层以下的下沉气流增强和维持。强下沉气流在近地层形成更强的辐散出流,加强了近地面对流区气流的辐合,有利于上升气流的发展加强,从而地面产生更强的降水,对暴雨的预报能力明显增强。

    Abstract:

    Based on the raindrop spectrum observation data of Urumqi, Xinjiang from July 3 to October 3, 2018, this paper improved the WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6) scheme in Urumqi regional high-resolution numerical prediction system, and evaluated the improvement effect of a heavy precipitation process prediction in Xinjiang from 1200 BJT on June 15 to 0000 BJT on June 17, 2021. The results show that the average diameter (D0), maximum diameter (Dmax), and mass weighted average diameter (Dm) of raindrops in Urumqi were 0.65 mm, 1.60 mm, and 0.93 mm, respectively based on the raindrop spectrum observation. The WSM6-new scheme considering the fitting relationship between parameters lgNw and Dm in Xinjiang improved the prediction ability of the intensity and strong center range of precipitation to a certain extent. The scoring results of TS, BR, ETS, and TSS show that with the increase of precipitation grade, the prediction ability of WSM6-new scheme was significantly improved, and it showed obvious advantages for the prediction of heavy rain and torrential rain. The parameter scheme with different raindrop size distribution had a certain impact on the structural characteristics of precipitation cloud system, vertical velocity, atmospheric stratification, and divergence field. The impact on cloud microphysical processes was mainly reflected in the content and distribution of rainwater. WSM6-new scheme adopted the statistical characteristics of raindrop spectrum in Xinjiang, which made the description of raindrop size distribution in the model closer to reality. The number concentration of large raindrops in raindrop spectrum increased obviously, the terminal velocity of raindrops increased, and the drag effect enhanced, which was conducive to the enhancement and maintenance of downdraft below frozen level. The strong downdraft formed a strong divergent outflow in the near ground layer, which strengthened the air convergence in the convection area near the ground and was of benefit to the development and strengthening of the updraft. Therefore, a stronger precipitation process appeared on the ground, and the prediction ability for heavy rain and torrential rain was obviously enhanced.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-11-03
  • 最后修改日期:2022-01-12
  • 录用日期:2022-01-25
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-02-23
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