Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control/Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology/School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science Technology
利用GEOS-Chem模式量化了2014–2017年《大气污染防治行动计划》执行以来,人为排放和气象因素变化对中国夏季大气OH浓度变化的贡献。模拟结果表明,2014–2017年间夏季整个中国OH浓度呈现上升趋势,最大上升出现在30°N附近的华南地区。在华北平原地区,OH浓度也呈明显的上升趋势(0.1×106 molec cm?3/year),而OH浓度比较高的珠江三角洲地区的OH变化趋势较小。敏感性试验结果表明,气象和人为排放变化都对2014–2017华北平原OH浓度上升有促进作用,但人为排放的贡献(OH增加10.0%)远大于气象的贡献(OH增加1.5%)；OH浓度变化最大的南方地区主要是气象条件控制。进一步对气象因素分析发现,影响全国OH 变化最重要的气象要素是太阳短波辐射,决定了2014–2017中国OH浓度增长趋势最大的区域。但在华北地区,2014–2017短波辐射略微减少的影响被边界层高度明显降低带来的OH增加所抵消。
The GEOS-Chem model was applied to examine the effects of changes in anthropogenic emissions and meteorological parameters on the changes in summertime OH concentrations in China since the implementation of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan. Our modeling results over years of 2014–2017 show that summertime OH concentrations in China exhibited an overall upward trend with the fastest increases around the 30°N over eastern China; the North China Plain was also simulated having an obvious upward trend of OH concentration of 0.1×106 molec cm?3/year, while the Pearl River Delta experienced a weak trend. Further sensitivity experiments simulations showed that changes in both meteorology and anthropogenic emissions over 2014–2017 contributed to the increases in OH concentrations in the North China Plain, in which the contribution of anthropogenic emissions was significantly larger than that of meteorology (10% vs. 1.5%); Meteorology played a dominated role in OH increase around 30°N over eastern China. Our further meteorological analysis shows that the meteorological variable with the greatest contribution was solar shortwave radiation, which can explain the OH changes over a large fraction of China during 2014–2017. However, the role of solar shortwave radiation was offset by the boundary layer height in affecting 2014–2017 OH changes in the North China Plain.