National Meteorological Center
In this paper, the model-based aircraft icing potential probability prediction method is optimized. The algorithm is mainly based on the temperature and humidity output from the convection-allowing model, which can output the aircraft icing potential with high temporal and spatial resolution fitting the aircraft icing situation in China. Compared with the original algorithm, it is optimized from three aspects: cloud layer judgment, convective cloud aircraft icing and the membership functions. Firstly, the optimized algorithm adopts membership functions that are more suitable for aircraft icing accumulation in China. Secondly, using the relative humidity threshold varying with height to judge the cloud layers can effectively decrease the missing report of both low-level clouds and high-level clouds and the false alarms of middle-level clouds. Thirdly, the prediction of icing conditions in convective clouds is established separately to further improve the prediction accuracy of icing potential algorithm. Through the systematic verification of nearly 600 pilot reports of domestic aircraft icing, the results show that the prediction effect of the optimized aircraft icing potential prediction method is better than the original prediction method and the traditional IC algorithm in the range of high threshold and low threshold. Through the cases verification of 3 flights of aircraft icing detection in central and southern Shaanxi Province in March 2020, it is not only accurate to predict the existence of icing conditions, but also in line with the actual observation results in terms of icing intensity.