双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

公里尺度分辨率WRF模拟梅雨暴雨对积云对流参数化的敏感性试验研究
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浙江省气象科学研究所

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浙江省基础公益研究计划项目(LGF20D050001),中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021Z085),浙江省气象科技计划项目(2017ZD05、2019ZD11、2020ZD06、2021YYZX06)


Impact of cumulus parameterization schemes on the high-resolution numerical simulation of heavy Meiyu front rainfall events
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Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences

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    摘要:

    本文利用中尺度模式WRF V4.0.2(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)对浙江省两次梅雨暴雨过程进行数值模拟,分别选用WSM6和Thompson云微物理方案、YSU和MYJ边界层方案、以及11种对流参数化方案进行试验对比分析,探究不同积云对流参数化方案对梅雨锋暴雨的1 km高分辨率预报的影响,结果表明:(1)在对各试验的降水预报评估过程中,传统点对点方法和邻域法都能客观表现出各试验的预报水平,而FSS检验法能更加客观地评估模式对小范围的强降水预报水平。(2)三类积云对流方案(无积云方案、传统积云对流方案和尺度自适应积云对流方案)都能较好地模拟出小雨降水的发生情况,但随着降水强度增强至暴雨、大暴雨强度,此时尺度自适应的积云对流方案对降水的预报结果有明显改善。(3)尺度自适应积云对流方案对微物理和行星边界层方案的反应更为敏感,在不同微物理和边界层组合方案下尺度自适应积云方案的模拟结果差异更为显著,而传统积云方案的模拟结果的效果不明显。(4)在1-10 km的“灰色区域”范围内,随着网格分辨率提高到1 km时,尺度自适应的积云对流方案较传统积云对流方案对模式的预报结果有明显改善。本研究的结果在一定程度上可为高精度业务预报工作中对尺度自适应对流参数化方案的应用提供参考。

    Abstract:

    This study used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model WRF V4.0.2 (Weather Research and Forecasting Model, Version 4.0.2) to simulate two Meiyu front precipitation processes in Zhejiang Province, and to investigate the influence of different cumulus convective parameterization schemes on precipitation forecast. The WSM6 and Thompson microphysics schemes, YSU and MYJ boundary layer schemes, and 11 cumulus convective parameterization schemes were selected for comparative analyses to explore the influence of different cumulus convective parameterization schemes on Meiyu front precipitation forecast. The results show that: (1) In the process of precipitation forecast evaluation for each experiment, both the traditional point-to-point method and the neighborhood method can objectively show the prediction level of each experiment. However, the neighborhood method performs more objectively evaluation of the prediction level of small-scale heavy precipitation. (2) Three types of cumulus convection solutions (no cumulus clouds, traditional cumulus convection, and the scale-aware cumulus convection) can better simulate the light precipitation, but with the intensification of precipitation to ranstorm and heavy rainstorm, the scale-aware cumulus convection schemes improves the forecast results significantly. (3) The scale-aware cumulus convection scheme is more sensitive to microphysics and planetary boundary layer schemes, and the simulation results of the scale-aware cumulus convection scheme are more significant under different microphysics and boundary layer combination schemes, while the simulation results of the traditional cumulus convection scheme are not obvious. (4) In the "gray zone" range of 1-10 km, the scale-aware cumulus convection scheme can significantly improve the prediction results of model compared with the traditional cumulus convection scheme when the grid resolution is increased to 1 km. To some extent, the results of this study can provide a reference for the application of scale-aware convective parameterization schemes in high-precision operational forecasting.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-12-30
  • 最后修改日期:2022-03-31
  • 录用日期:2022-05-18
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