双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

西太平洋台风活动对中国西北地区东部夏季降水的影响
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国防科技大学气象海洋学院

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国家自然科学基金,湖南省科技创新计划,国防科技大学科研计划项目


Influence of Typhoons in the Western Pacific on Summer Precipitation in the Eastern Part of Northwest China
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College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology

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    摘要:

    基于1979-2020年共42年资料,利用常用的统计方法和随机森林方法,研究了西太平洋台风对我国西北地区东部(33°N-45°N,93°E-110°E,ENWR)降水的影响,结果发现:在台风频数和降水量都出现峰值的7、8、9月,出现在西北太平洋的台风对台风期间的ENWR平均日降水(TP)有影响。7月份台风的位置和强度影响显著,8月份台风的位置、强度和频数都有影响,9月份影响较小。台风的影响具有地域选择性,不同的月份这种选择性不同,对不同等级降水的影响也不同。其影响主要表现在EOF分解的第二模态以及强降水和极强降水等级上,这说明了台风不是影响TP的主要因素,这种影响是间接的和非线性的,台风的出现是通过影响东亚地区中高纬度的槽脊系统、西太平洋副热带高压以及低纬度低涡的强度和位置来形成有利于降水的条件,从而影响降水的分布和强度。相对于多元线性回归方法,基于随机森林方法建立的降水模型能更好的拟合出降水分布和强度,这说明台风对TP的影响主要是非线性的,且降水强度越强,非线性作用随越明显。同时,随机森林模型也显示出台风的位置是影响ENWR降水的最关键因素。

    Abstract:

    Based on the 42 years of data from 1970 to 2020, the traditional statistic methods and random forests have been used to study the influences of the typhoon in the Western Pacific on precipitation in the eastern part of northwest China (33°N-45°N,93°E-110°E,ENWC). The results are as follows. The peak values of the frequency of typhoon and precipitation are both in July, August, and September. The typhoons in the Western Pacific play an important role in the daily mean precipitation during the period of the typhoons (TP) in that month. The location and intensity of typhoons have the most significant influence on the precipitation in July and the location, intensity, and frequency of typhoons all influence the precipitation in August, while typhoons have little influence on the precipitation in September. The influences of typhoons change with location, time, and the level of precipitation. The influences of typhoons are mainly on the second mode of the EOF analysis, the heavy and extremely heavy precipitation, which shows that the typhoons are not the main factors to influence TP and the influence is indirect and nonlinear. The typhoons influence the precipitation by influencing the location and intensity of the ridges and troughs in the mid-latitude, the West Pacific subtropical high, and the vortex in the low-latitude. The model based on the random forests can fit the distribution and intensity better than the linear model, which shows that the influences of typhoons on TP are mainly nonlinear and the nonlinear influence increases with the intensity of the precipitation. The random forests model also shows that the location of the typhoon is the most significant factor to influence the precipitation in ENWC.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-01-12
  • 最后修改日期:2022-05-05
  • 录用日期:2022-06-20
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-06-21
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