双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

不同降水产品及WRF-Hydro模式在黄河源区的适用性分析
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1.成都信息工程大学大气科学学院;2.河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室;3.成都信息工程大学资源环境学院;4.中国科学院大学

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四川省科技计划项目(2021YJ0025);国家自然科学基金项目(41971308);成都信息工程大学科研项目(KYTZ201821)


Analysis on the Applicability of Different Precipitation Products and WRF-Hydro Model over the Source Region of the Yellow River
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Affiliation:

1.Key Laboratory of Plateau Atmosphere and Environment,Sichuan Province,College of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology;2.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University;3.College of Resources and Environment,Chengdu University of Information Technology

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    摘要:

    黄河源区是黄河流域主要的产流区和水源涵养区,研究和探索该区域陆面水文过程对理解陆面过程及水文循环特征,揭示陆面-水文耦合过程具有重要的科学意义。本研究基于2009~2018年中国区域高时空分辨率地面气象要素驱动数据(China Meteorological Forcing Dataset, CMFD)、全球高分辨率降水数据集(CPC Morphing Technique, CMORPH)、热带降雨测量卫星(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, TRMM)及全球陆地数据同化系统(Global Land Data Assimilation System, GLDAS)降水,评估了四类降水产品在黄河源区的降水精度,在此基础上,利用最优降水数据驱动独立运行的天气研究预报及水文耦合模型系统(Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modeling system, WRF-Hydro)模式,探究该模式在黄河源区径流模拟的适用性。结果表明:四类降水产品均能够反映出降水的分布特征,但在量值及细节捕捉上存在显著差异。CMFD在不同时空尺度上都能很好地捕捉到降水的演变特征,其与日观测降水的相关系数达到0.99,均方根误差仅为0.25 mm。在表征降水能力方面,四类降水产品总体表现为CMFD> CMORPH> TRMM> GLDAS,CMFD的平均探测成功率(Critical Success Index, CSI)在0.93以上。经参数率定后的WRF-Hydro模式在黄河源区月径流模拟方面表现较好,率定期纳什系数(Nash efficiency coefficient, NSE)均在0.92以上,而验证期丰水年模拟结果明显好于枯水年(NSE=0.15),这与降水和径流的非线性程度有关。本研究方案和结果为亚寒带半干旱气候区大尺度流域水文模拟及径流预测提供了一定的参考价值。

    Abstract:

    The Source Region of the Yellow River (SRYR) is the main runoff producing area and important water conservation area of the Yellow River Basin. It is of great scientific significance for understanding and exploring the land surface process and regional water cycle characteristics and revealing the impact of land-hydrological processes coupling over the SRYR. Based on the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD), CPC Morphing Technique (CMORPH), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) precipitation from 2009 to 2018, the precipitation accuracy of four types of precipitation products is evaluated in this research. On this basis, the standalone Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) model is chosen and driven by the optimal precipitation products to explore the applicability of this model in streamflow simulation over the SRYR. The results show that the four types of precipitation products have the ability to reflect the distribution characteristics of precipitation, while there are significant differences in quantity and detail. CMFD products perform better in capturing the evolution characteristics of the precipitation at different spatial and temporal scales. The correlation coefficient between CMFD products and gauge observation is 0.99, and the root mean square error is 0.25 mm. In terms of the ability to indicate precipitation, the overall performance of the four types of precipitation products presents that CMFD > CMORPH > TRMM > GLDAS and the average critical success index of CMFD is more than 0.93. The WRF-Hydro model calibrated by the sensitive parameters is with?good?performance in simulating monthly streamflow over the SRYR. The Nash efficiency coefficients (NSE) is above 0.92 during the calibration period, while the simulation results are significantly better in the high flow years than that in the low flow years with a NSE of 0.15 during the validation period, which is related to the non-linearity of precipitation and streamflow. This research scheme and results are potential to provide references for the large-scale watershed hydrological simulation and projection in the semi-arid region of the sub cold zone.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-03-29
  • 最后修改日期:2022-05-09
  • 录用日期:2022-07-04
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