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ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

区域集合预报集合卡尔曼变换初始扰动的余弦分析约束方案研究
作者:
作者单位:

1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室;2.中国民用航空青岛空中交通管理站;3.河南省气象探测数据中心

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基金项目:

国家重点研发计划2017YFC1502000、2018YFC1506702;中国气象局数值预报(GRAPES)发展专项


Study for GRAPES-REPS of cosine analysis constraint scheme based on ETKF initial perturbations
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of;2.Qingdao Air Traffic Management Station of Civil Aviation of China;3.Henan Meteorological Observation Data Center

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    摘要:

    基于GRAPES区域集合预报系统,针对初始扰动对预报误差描述能力依然不足的问题,在动力降尺度构造集合初始扰动的基础上,本文利用集合卡尔曼变换(ETKF)方法更新集合扰动以捕获更多中小尺度扰动信息,提出并发展了一种融合资料同化分析增量特征信息的新的分析约束扰动方法——余弦分析约束扰动,对ETKF更新后集合初始扰动的不合理信息进行适应性自主调整,使得不同空间尺度的初始扰动物理结构和振幅尽可能与相应的预报误差结构和振幅相一致。试验结果表明,随天气形式的持续演变,强降水区域分析约束调整的集合初始扰动的中小尺度信息明显更为丰富,且温度扰动显示出更明显的优势;在模式积分初期,余弦分析约束扰动方案的集合离散度和扰动能量在空间分布与演变特征等方面均表现出更为合理的发展趋势,初始扰动质量及预报性能由此得到了有效改善。

    Abstract:

    For solving inconformity with forecast errors, the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) method is used to update the perturbations generated by dynamic downscaling in Global/Regional Assimilation PrEdiction System-Regional Ensemble Prediction System (GRAPES-REPS) and capture more mesoscale perturbations in this paper. On this basis, a brand new method named Cosine Analysis Constraint Scheme is designed to optimize the updated initial perturbations which makes the up-to-date perturbations more consistent with the forecast errors. The results show that the perturbations adjusted by Cosine Analysis Constraint Scheme may present the most abundant information for mesoscale compared to other experiments in the area of precipitation. After constraining, the structure and evolution of the perturbations become more reasonable and match better with the development of weather systems at different scales. The features of spread and perturbation energy are also improved effectively, especially in the early period.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-04-05
  • 最后修改日期:2022-10-27
  • 录用日期:2022-11-09
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-11-10
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