双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

风云三号C星微波湿度计资料全天候同化在台风“玛莉亚”预报中的影响研究
作者:
作者单位:

1.成都信息工程大学大气科学学院;2.中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心;3.国家卫星气象中心

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其它,国家自然科学基金


The Impacts of assimilating FengYun-3C/MWHS-2 Observations under All-Sky Conditions on the Forecasts of Typhoon Maria
Author:
Affiliation:

1.College of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology;2.International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences;3.National Satellite Meteorological Center

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    摘要:

    随着风云三号系列卫星的成功发射,越来越多的卫星微波直接观测资料应用于数值天气预报的资料同化系统。并且由于卫星微波全天候同化技术可以充分利用晴天及云雨区微波观测资料,在增加同化使用的观测数据的基础上,有效提高数值天气预报准确率,该技术在卫星资料同化领域也颇受瞩目。本研究选取2018年7月的台风“玛莉亚”,利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式及其同化系统WRFDA(WRF Data Assimilation)中三维变分方法,探讨风云三号C星微波湿度计观测资料的全天候同化技术在区域模式中的适用性,以及其在不同模式驱动场中的预报表现。通过对比仅同化晴空区域卫星资料的试验和全天候同化的试验结果发现,全天候条件下更多的云雨区域观测资料被有效利用,能够更好地模拟出台风“玛莉亚”核心区域的暖心和对称风速结构,有效改善湿度场的预报,对台风路径的预报误差平均降低了大约34~62%,且这种正面影响均能在不同模式驱动场中得到体现。

    Abstract:

    With the successful launch of FengYun-3, more satellite observations of radiances are directly assimilated. The satellite microwave all-sky assimilation technology can make better use of the microwave observation data in clear, cloudy and precipitating conditions. It can not only increase assimilated radiances, but also show positive impacts on numerical weather prediction. As a result, the all-sky approach gets a lot of attention now. In this study, a typhoon case called Maria in July 2018 is selected and all-sky assimilation of FY-3C/MWHS-2 data were used in Weather Research and Forecasting Model, based on the 3-dimensional variational data assimilation technique within the WRFDA (WRF data assimilation) system, in order to study the impacts of assimilating FY-3C/MWHS-2 data under the all-sky conditions and using different data types of the initial fields on the forecasts in the regional numerical model. The comparison of the clear-sky and all-sky assimilation experiments shows that under the all-sky conditions, more clouds and precipitation data are assimilated and the data usage is increased. Improvements are displayed in the analysis of the vertical structures of Maria, such as the warm core and the symmetric wind speed structures, and the humidity fields. The average reduction rates of the track error are about 34% to 62%. These positive impacts can be demonstrated in all the all-sky experiments with different data types for initializing WRF.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-05-24
  • 最后修改日期:2023-02-22
  • 录用日期:2023-02-27
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-03-01
  • 出版日期: