双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

近136年长江中下游的盛夏伏旱期
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作者单位:

1.江苏省气象科学研究所;2.中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室LASG

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金,国家重点基础研究规划项目


Summer hot-dry stages in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in the past 136 years
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Affiliation:

State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmosphere Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LASG,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences

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    摘要:

    少雨高温的伏旱期对长江中下游地区农业、水利和人体健康等具有重要影响,但目前缺乏对该地区伏旱期的历史划分,对其长期变化规律也缺乏充分认识。本文利用1885年以来已划定的长江中下游沿江五站(上海、南京、芜湖、九江和汉口)梅雨期和夏季日气温、降水资料,对出梅后的少雨高温时段分别确定了少雨和高温的定量标准,划定出1885-2020年长江中下游伏旱期;并用统一气温标准结合伏旱期长度,综合确定了近136年伏旱期强度指数。这136年里伏旱期的年平均长度为21.6天(包含有16个无伏旱年及10个入秋伏旱年),呈现出3-6年、36年和84年周期。1951年以来,1959-1978年是伏旱期长度的主要峰期,1980-1987年是伏旱期长度的谷期,之后缓慢增加;1980s之后虽然>30d的长伏旱期有减少趋势,但是15-30d且高强度的伏旱期频现;1995年之后秋伏旱明显增多,夏季延迟。136年里最长且强的伏旱期依次出现于1934、1967、1978和2013年;最早的伏旱期出现在6月中旬,最晚在9月中下旬。近40年来,伏旱期高温(≥35.0℃)日数大幅提高,伏旱期高温发生率从1980s的30%左右上升到近年的50%以上,对人体健康构成威胁。长(强)伏旱期的副热带环流特征为西太平洋副热带高压稳定控制长江中下游区,而短(弱)伏旱期西太平洋副热带高压多偏东或偏南,秋伏旱与副高稳定西伸有关。伏旱期内高温日数的演变受到双重人类活动的制约:它不仅与人类活动导致的全球海陆升温有关,但也因地而异,即受到局地生态环境演变和城市热岛效应增减的人为作用影响。印太季风区陆海温差对长江中下游伏旱期长度年代际变化有重要调制作用。

    Abstract:

    The hot-dry stages with little rain and high temperature has an important impact on agriculture, water conservancy and human health in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR), but there is still a lack of sufficient understanding of the historical division and long-term change law of the hot-dry stages in this region. Based on the daily temperature and precipitation data of the Meiyu season and summer at five stations along the MLRYR (Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuhu, Jiujiang and Hankou) since 1885, the quantitative standards of less rain and high temperature for the hot-dry stages after the Meiyu end date are determined respectively, and the MLRYR hot-dry stages from 1885 to 2020 are defined; combined the uniform temperature standard and the length of summer hot-dry stage, the intensity index of summer hot-dry stage for the 136 years was determined. For the 136 years, the average length of annual hot-dry stages is 21.6 days (including 16 non hot-dry-stage years and 10 autumn hot-dry years), showing 3-6-years, 36-years and 84-years cycles. Since 1951, 1959-1978 was the main peak period of the length of the hot-dry stage, 1980-1987 was the valley period, and then increased slowly; after 1980s, although the long hot-dry stage >30 days tended to decrease, the 15-30 days and high-intensity hot-dry stages occurred frequently; since 1995, the autumn hot-dry stages have increased significantly and summer has had a delay trend. The longest and strongest summer hot-dry stages in the 136 years occurred in 1934, 1967, 1978 and 2013, and the earliest/latest hot-dry stage occurred in the middle of June/middle and late September. In the past 40 years, the number of days with high temperature (≥ 35.0 ℃) in the summer hot-dry stages has increased significantly, and the incidence of high temperature in the summer hot-dry stages has increased from about 30% in the 1980s to more than 50% in recent years, posing a threat to human health. The characteristics of subtropical circulation in the long (strong) summer hot-dry stages are that the Western Pacific subtropical high stably controls the MLRYR, while in the short (weak) summer hot-dry stages, the Western Pacific subtropical high is mostly east or south, and the autumn hot-dry stages are related to the stable westward extension of the subtropical high. The evolution of high temperature days in the summer hot-dry stages is restricted by dual human activities: it is not only related to the global sea and land warming caused by human activities, but also varies from place to place, that is, it is affected by the evolution of local ecological environment and the increase or decrease of urban heat island effect. On the interdecadal time-scale, the continent-ocean temperature difference in the Indo-Pacific monsoon region is found to have an important modulation effect on the interdecadal variation of the length of the summer hot-dry stages in the MLRYR.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-06-10
  • 最后修改日期:2022-12-04
  • 录用日期:2022-12-12
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-12-26
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