双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

秋季北大西洋马蹄型海温异常与初冬我国气温年际变化的联系
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南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点试验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合试验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心

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国家自然科学基金


Characteristic of North Atlantic Horseshoe SSTA in Autumn and the Relationship with the Interannual Variation of Early Winter Temperature in China
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    摘要:

    本文基于Hadley中心的海表温度资料、全国160站气温资料以及NCEP/NCAR的再分析资料,运用经验正交函数分解和相关分析等多种统计方法,研究了1951—2020年秋季(9—11月)北大西洋海温年际异常的主要特征及其对初冬(12月)我国气温异常的影响。结果表明:秋季北大西洋海温异常EOF的第一模态是纽芬兰岛东南部海温为负(正)距平,北大西洋副极地和副热带及其东部海温为正(负)距平的马蹄型海温模态,方差贡献率为20.5%。研究表明,秋季北大西洋马蹄型海温异常与我国大部分地区初冬气温异常有显著的正相关关系,即秋季北大西洋马蹄型海温模态呈正位相时,我国大部分地区初冬气温异常偏高,反之,我国大部分地区初冬气温异常偏低。进一步分析表明,秋季北大西洋马蹄型海温异常能够持续到初冬。当秋季北大西洋马蹄型海温呈正(负)位相时,初冬北大西洋副极地和副热带海温的加热(冷却)能够引起局地对流层上层的辐散(辐合)运动,并且激发出从北大西洋到东亚地区的遥相关波列,在我国上空对流层上层出现异常辐合(辐散),与之伴随的异常下沉(上升)运动使得我国上空云量减少(增加),到达地表的短波辐射增加(减少),同时地表向低层大气传输的长波辐射增加(减少),在非绝热加热的作用下,我国大部分地区气温异常偏高(偏低)。利用NCAR CAM5.3模拟了北大西洋马蹄型海温异常对初冬大气环流、辐射强迫和气温的影响,模拟结果与观测资料统计分析结果基本一致,进一步表明该海温模态能够激发出遥相关波列,影响东亚大气环流异常,通过非绝热加热的作用影响我国气温异常的年际变化。

    Abstract:

    Based on the sea surface temperture (SST) data of Hadley Center, the temperture data of 160 stations in China and the reanalysis data of NCEP/NCAR, the variability of the interannual of North Atlantic SST anomaly (SSTA) in autumn and its association with early winter temperture in China are studied by using a variety of statistical methods such as Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and correlation analysis. The results suggest that the first mode of North Atlantic SST anomaly EOF in autumn is North Atlantic Horseshoe Pattern (NAH) with negative (positive) SST anomalies in southeastern Newfoundland, and positive (negative) SST anomalies in the subpolar, subtropical and eastern North Atlantic , which revealed 20.5% variance. The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between NAH SSTA in autumn and early winter temperture in most parts of China. Further analysis show that the NAH SSTA in autumn can persist until early winter. When the NAH SST is in a positive (negative) phase in autumn, the heating (cooling) of NAH SSTA over the subpolar and subtropical in early winter can cause divergence (convergence) in the upper troposphere, and stimulate the teleconnected wave train from the North Atlantic to the mid-high latitudes of East Asia, with the high-level converge (divergence) in China. As a result, through the sinking(rising) movement, the total cloud cover in the above area is reduced (increased), the shortwave radiation reaching the surface has increased (reduced), and the longwave radiation transmitted from the surface to the lower atmosphere has increased (reduced).Under the action of diabatic heating, the temperature in most areas of China is abnormally high (low). NCAR CAM5.3 was used to simulate the effects of the NAH SSTA on atmospheric circulation, radiative forcing and air temperature in early winter. The simulation results were basically consistent with the statistical analysis results of the observational data. This further confirms that the SST mode can affect the atmospheric circulation anomalies in East Asia by stimulating the teleconnected wave train, thereby affect the interannual variation of air temperature anomalies in China through the effect of diabatic heating.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-06-26
  • 最后修改日期:2022-09-27
  • 录用日期:2022-10-19
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-01-12
  • 出版日期: