双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

利用LSTM对赤道太平洋海表面温度短期预报
作者:
作者单位:

中国科学院大气物理研究所

作者简介:

通讯作者:

基金项目:

国家重点基础研究发展计划,,国家自然科学基金,其它


Short-term sea surface temperature forecasts in the equatorial Pacific based on LSTM
Author:
Affiliation:

Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
    摘要:

    海表面温度作为海洋中一个最重要的变量,对全球气候、海洋生态等有很大的影响,因此十分有必要对海表面温度(SST)预报。深度学习具备高效的数据处理能力,但目前利用深度学习对整个赤道太平洋的SST短期预报及预报技巧的研究仍较少。本文基于最优插值海表面温度(OISST)的日平均SST数据,利用Long Short-term Memory(LSTM)网络构建了未来10天赤道太平洋(10°S-10°N,120.0°E-280°E)SST的逐日预报模型。LSTM预报模型利用1982-2010年的观测数据进行训练,2011-2020年的观测数据作为初值进行预报和评估。结果表明:赤道太平洋东部地区预报均方根误差(RMSE)大于中、西部,预报第1天东部RMSE为0.6℃左右,中、西部均小于0.3℃。在不同的年际变化位相,拉尼娜时期RMSE最大,正常年份次之,厄尔尼诺时期最小,拉尼娜时期比厄尔尼诺时期的RMSE在一些区域超过20%。预报偏差整体表现为东正西负。相关预报技巧上,中部最好,可预报天数基本为10天以上,赤道冷舌附近可预报天数为4-7天,赤道西边部分地区可预报天数为3天。预报模型在赤道太平洋东部地区各月份预报技巧普遍低于西部地区,相比较而言各区域10、11月份表现最差。总的来说,基于LSTM构建的SST预报模型能很好地捕捉到SST在时序上的演变特征,在不同案例中预报表现良好。同时该预报模型依靠数据驱动,能迅速且较好预报未来10天以内的日平均SST的短期变化。

    Abstract:

    As one of the essential variables in the ocean, sea surface temperature (SST) significantly impacts global climate and marine ecology, so it is necessary to forecast the sea surface temperature. Deep learning is highly efficient at data processing, but it is rarely used in equatorial Pacific SST short-term forecasting. Based on Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) network, this paper constructs a daily forecast model of SST in the tropical Pacific Ocean (10°S-10°N, 120.0°E-280°E) in the next ten days. Using observations from 1982-2010 as a train set and data from 2011-2020 as preliminary values, the model forecasts the SST. The results show that the forecast Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) in the eastern equatorial Pacific region is more significant than that in the central and western areas. The RMSE of the east part is about 0.6°C on the first day of the forecast, while the west and central regions are less than 0.3°C. In different interannual variation phases, RMSE is the largest in the La Ni?a period, followed by normal years, and the smallest in the El Ni?o period. RMSE in the La Ni?a period is more than 20% in some regions than in the El Ni?o period. The forecast deviation is positive in the east and negative in the west. Regarding relevant forecasting techniques, the central part is the best. The number of predictable days is more than ten days. Specifically, the number of predictable days near the equatorial cold tongue is 4-7 days, and the number of predictable days in parts of the western equator is three days. Forecasting models generally have lower monthly fore-casting skills than the western regions in the eastern equatorial Pacific region, and the areas performed the worst in October and November. In general, the SST forecast model based on LSTM can well capture the evolution characteristics of SST in time series, and the forecast performance is good in different cases. At the same time, the forecast model relying on data-driven can quickly and well predict the short-term change of daily average SST within the next ten days.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-07-26
  • 最后修改日期:2023-02-12
  • 录用日期:2023-02-21
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-02-22
  • 出版日期: