双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

准双周振荡对广东夏季季风槽暴雨的影响
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作者单位:

1.广东省气象台;2.中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所;3.北京市通州区气象局

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基金项目:

国家重点研究发展计划项目2018YFC1505806,中国气象局创新发展专项CXFZ2021Z010、国家自然科学基金项目41675096,广东省自然科学基金S2013010016751


Influence of Quasi-biweekly Oscillation on Monsoon Trough Rainstorm in summer in Guangdong province
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Affiliation:

1.Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,CMA;2.Guangdong Observatory;3.Tongzhou Meteorological Bureau of Beijing

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    摘要:

    利用1961—2017年NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析与广东逐日降水等资料,通过选取没有与锋系联系一起、由单一南海季风槽影响导致的广东暖区暴雨过程并进行分类,采用合成分析、小波分析、Lanczos滤波器等方法,研究了不同类型季风槽暴雨过程的时空分布特征及其与大气低频振荡的关系,重点揭示了强西南季风急流型季风槽暴雨过程在准双周振荡不同位相大气环流场的演变特征及低频信号的来源。结果表明:(1)强西南季风急流型季风槽暴雨过程占总个例的53.1%,主要出现在广东沿海与内陆的三大暴雨中心(阳江—阳春—恩平、海丰—陆丰—汕尾、龙门—佛岗),其余三类季风槽暴雨过程(强西南季风辐合型、东南季风扰动型、热带气旋远离型)主要出现在广东沿海的两大暴雨中心及珠江口两侧。(2)季风槽暴雨过程主要存在5~8天的准单周振荡、10~28天的准双周振荡,少数年份还存在32~65天振荡。(3)强西南季风急流型季风槽暴雨从间歇-开始-鼎盛-减弱期,低频信号不仅来源于从欧洲西部到东北亚具有准正压性“反气旋—气旋”相间排列的低频波列的东南向传播,还来源于对流层中低层菲律宾东南的热带西太平洋低频气旋西北向传播,它们使南亚高压从孟加拉国向巴基斯坦挺近,西太平洋副高逐渐加强西伸北抬,巴尔喀什湖—贝加尔湖—我国中东部地区由间歇期的低频反气旋环流或高压脊逐渐转为鼎盛期的低频气旋环流或高空槽控制。(4)当华南高层由低频反气旋环流东南侧的强东北风逐渐转为华北-江南低频气旋性环流底部的强偏西风与印度半岛—南海西北部低频反气旋外围的西北风控制,高空辐散逐渐增强并达到最强。中低层由低频反气旋环流或高压脊控制逐渐转受来自南海中北部—孟加拉湾低频反气旋北缘的强西南风控制,并受东北亚、日本及其以南西太平洋低频反气旋环流的阻挡,在我国西南—江南—华南上空形成强的低频气旋性环流与正涡度,地面由弱均压场逐渐转为北部湾向北伸展加强的闭合低压控制,南海季风槽北抬并增强,使强西南季风急流型季风槽暴雨从无转为开始并达到鼎盛期。它们可为季风槽暴雨的中期-延伸期预报提供参考。

    Abstract:

    Using NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis dataset and Guangdong daily precipitation from 1961 to 2017, by selecting and classifying the rainstorm processes in the warm sector in Guangdong only caused by South China Sea monsoon trough without the frontal system, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of different types of monsoon trough rainstorm processes and their relationship with atmospheric low-frequency oscillations are studied, focusing on revealing atmospheric circulation field evolution characteristics in phase of quasi-biweekly oscillations and the sources of low-frequency signals with strong southwest monsoon jet-type monsoon trough rainstorm process, by the methods of synthetic analysis, wavelet analysis and Lanczos filter. The strong southwest monsoon jet type monsoon trough rainstorm process accounted for 53.1% of the total cases, mainly occurring in the three major rainstorm centers (Yangjiang-Yangchun-Enping, Haifeng-Lufeng-shanwei, Longmen-Fogang) along the coast and inland of Guangdong. The other three types of monsoon troughs rainstorm process (strong southwest monsoon convergence type, southeast monsoon disturbance type, tropical cyclone away type) mainly occurred in the two major rainstorm centers along the coast of Guangdong and on both sides of the Pearl River Estuary. The monsoon trough rainstorm process mainly exhibit quasi weekly (5-8 days) and quasi biweekly (10-28 days) oscillations but less 32-65 days oscillations. During the intermittent-start-peak-weak period of strong southwest monsoon jet-type monsoon trough rainstorm process,the low-frequency signal not only originates from the southeastward-propagatian of the quasi-barotropic low-frequency wave train consisting of a series of anomalous anticyclones and cyclones from Western Europe to Northeast Asia,but also originates from the northwestward propagation of low-frequency cyclones in the tropical western Pacific of southeast Philippines in the middle and lower troposphere. They made the South Asian High move westward from Bangladesh to Pakistan, the western Pacific subtropical high gradually strengthened and extended northwestward, from Balkashi Lake to Baikal lake ,central and eastern China is controlled by low frequency anticyclonic circulation or high pressure ridge in intermittent period gradually turning into low frequency cyclonic circulation or upper trough in peak period. In South China, the upper-air divergence gradually increases and reaches the strongest, as the strong northeasterly at the southeast side of the low-frequency anticyclonic circulation gradually changes to the strong westerly from the bottom of low-frequency cyclonic circulation which controls the North China and South of the Yangtze, and the northwesterly from periphery of low-frequency anticyclone which controls the Indian Peninsula-Northwest South China Sea. The middle and lower layers are gradually controlled from the low frequency anticyclone circulation or high pressure ridge to the strong southwesterly which comes from the north of the low frequency anticyclone which controls the central and northern South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal, the strong low-frequency cyclonic circulation and positive vorticity are formed over Southwest China, South of the Yangtze and South China ,when the strong southwesterly are blocked by the low-frequency anticyclone circulation over Northeast Asia, Japan and the southwestern Pacific. The Sea level pressure gradually changed from a weak uniform pressure filed to a closed low pressure extending northwards from the Beibu Gulf , the South China Sea monsoon trough lifts northward and strengthens, making the strong southwest monsoon jet-type monsoon trough rainstorm from the intermittent to peak period. These are beneficial to medium-extended-range forecast of monsoon trough rainstorm processes.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-08-04
  • 最后修改日期:2024-12-01
  • 录用日期:2025-01-06
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