双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

巴伦支海地区秋季海冰偏少对西伯利亚地区反气旋活动的影响
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1.无锡学院中国气象局生态系统碳源汇重点开放实验室;2.南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室;3.广东省气象台;4.上海市气候中心,上海,200030

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Effect of less sea ice in the Barents Sea on anticyclone activity in Siberia
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1.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters of the Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Engineering;2.Guangdong Meteorological Observatory

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    摘要:

    全球变暖背景下,北极地区大幅升温、海冰急剧退缩,以往研究揭示了秋季巴伦支海区域的海冰状况是后期冬季欧亚大陆气温异常的显著前兆因子,而西伯利亚冬季低层反气旋的活动与冷空气变化密切相关,但北极海冰对西伯利亚地区冬季低层反气旋/冷高压活动是否以及如何产生影响仍有待进一步研究。本文利用欧洲中期天气预报中心再分析资料ERA5及海冰资料,研究了巴伦支海地区秋季海冰偏少对西伯利亚地区反气旋活动的影响及途径。结果表明:(1)巴伦支海地区秋季海冰密集度的年际变化对西伯利亚地区冬季反气旋及其携带的冷空气质量作用明显,当秋季海冰较少时,反气旋活动增强,其携带冷空气增多。(2)秋季海冰面积指数减少将导致后期更多海洋热量向大气传递,从而降低冬季极区与中纬度间的经向温度梯度,进而减弱中纬度西风,造成欧亚大陆反气旋活动增强。(3)利用大气环流模式CAM6,设计了巴伦支海区域海冰变化的敏感性试验,其结果也显示在海冰偏少条件下,除贝加尔湖以东和中国东北部地区,欧亚大陆大部分地区均呈现反气旋频次增多、反气旋中心气压增强。其中,海冰减少引起了位涡经向梯度的显著降低,从而导致东欧平原、乌拉尔山以及东亚地区的阻塞发生频率增大,使得欧亚大陆中纬度大部分区域反气旋活动增强,气温下降。

    Abstract:

    In the context of global warming, the Arctic region has warmed significantly and sea ice has retreated dramatically, and previous studies have revealed that the sea ice condition in the Barents Sea region in autumn is a significant precursor factor for temperature anomalies in Eurasia in late winter, while the activity of the low-level anticyclone in Siberia in winter is closely related to the change of the cold air, but whether and how the Arctic sea ice affects the activity of low-level anticyclone/cold high-pressure in winter in Siberia is still to be Further studies are needed. In this paper, the effects and pathways of low sea ice in autumn in the Barents Sea region on anticyclone activities in Siberia are investigated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data, ERA5, and sea ice data. The results show that: (1) the interannual variations of the fall sea-ice density in the Barents Sea region have an effect on both winter anticyclones and the quality of the cold air they carry in the Siberian region, and the anticyclone activity is enhanced and the cold air it carries is increased when there is less sea-ice in the fall. (2) Reduced sea ice area in the fall will lead to more ocean heat transfer to the atmosphere in the late season, thus reducing the meridional temperature gradient between the polar regions and the mid-latitudes in winter, and thus weakening the mid-latitude westerly winds, resulting in enhanced anticyclone activity in Eurasia. (3) Using the atmospheric circulation model CAM6, we designed a sensitivity test for sea ice changes in the Barents Sea region, and the results also reproduced that under conditions of low sea ice, most of the Eurasian continent, except for the area east of Lake Baikal and northeastern China, showed an increase in anticyclone frequency and an enhancement of the central pressure of the anticyclone. In particular, the reduction of sea ice caused a significant decrease in the meridional gradient of the vortex, which led to an increase in the frequency of blockages in the East European Plain, the Ural Mountains, and East Asia, resulting in an increase in anticyclone activity and a decrease in temperature in most of the mid-latitude regions of the Eurasian continent.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-09-20
  • 最后修改日期:2024-03-25
  • 录用日期:2024-04-28
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-04-29
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