双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

不同尺度初始误差对2021年台风烟花路径和强度模拟预报的影响研究
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中国科学院大气物理研究所

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国家自然科学基金,国家重点基础研究规划项目


The impacts of different-scale initial errors on the track and intensity simulated-forecasts of typhoon In-fa (2021)
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Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

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    摘要:

    本文以2021年台风烟花为例,考察了不同尺度初始误差对台风的路径和强度预报的影响。首先,由NCEP再分析资料(FNL)驱动WRF模式,对烟花进行长时间(15天)、高分辨率(3km)的模拟,产生对照试验(CTL_F);然后,由ECMWF的ERA5资料再次驱动WRF模式,进行相同时间长度和分辨率的模拟,产生对照试验(CTL_E);对比分析CTL_F和CTL_E的模拟结果,并与最佳路径进行比较,将与最佳路径较为接近的模拟结果做为真值,将另一模拟结果作为有误差的预报;然后将二者的初始场作差,并进行尺度分解,以200km, 2000km为界限,分解成小尺度、中尺度和大尺度3种误差,然后分别将这3种尺度的误差叠加到真值的初始场上,再分别进行模拟预报,考察不同尺度的误差对台风烟花模拟预报的影响程度,并分析各种尺度误差对预报误差的相对贡献。结果表明,不论是强度预报,还是路径预报,在前十天的预报中,中尺度误差的影响最为显著。叠加了中尺度误差后,台风路径趋向于叠加全部误差的路径,强度也趋向于叠加全部误差的强度,说明在前十天的预报中,中尺度误差起了决定性作用。而在后四天的预报中,大尺度和小尺度误差的贡献逐渐凸显,三种尺度误差的效果相当。此外,中尺度误差在前期使得台风路径偏东,强度偏强,而大尺度和小尺度误差使得台风路径偏西,强度偏弱。分析原因显示中尺度误差场与全部误差场具有更高的相似性,也即全部误差场的信息主要体现在中尺度误差上,因此中尺度误差在前期的作用最为显著。此外,叠加中尺度误差场后台风具有更强的初始强度,偏东的路径又使得其登陆时间较晚,因此,中尺度误差使得台风强度偏强。而大尺度和小尺度误差由于使得台风路径偏西,较早登陆,因此使得台风强度总体偏弱。

    Abstract:

    A long-lived tropical cyclone that occurred on North West Pacific called In-fa has been studied. Two kinds of data, one is ERA-5, another is FNL are used to produce the initial values for model integration. The ERA-5 data is taken as reference, the difference between FNL and ERA-5 is taken as perturbation. By decomposing the perturbation into different kind of scales, we reveal the impacts of different-scale initial perturbations on the forecasts of tropical cyclone. The results indicate that, whether it is intensity forecasting or track forecasting, the impact of mesoscale errors is most significant in the first ten days of forecasting. After adding mesoscale errors, the typhoon track tends to add up all the errors, and the intensity also tends to add up all the errors, indicating that mesoscale errors played a decisive role in the forecast for the first ten days. In the next four days of forecasting, the contributions of large-scale and small-scale errors gradually become prominent, and the effects of the three scale errors are equivalent. In addition, mesoscale errors in the early stage caused the typhoon track to be eastward and stronger, while large and small scale errors caused the typhoon track to be westward and weaker. The analysis of the reasons shows that the mesoscale error field has a higher similarity with the entire error field, that is, the information of the entire error field is mainly reflected in the mesoscale error, so the role of mesoscale error in the early stage is significant. In addition, the superimposed mesoscale error field has a stronger initial strength for the background wind, and the eastward track results in a later landing time. Therefore, mesoscale error leads to a stronger typhoon intensity. However, due to the large and small scale errors causing the typhoon track to be westward and make landfall earlier, the overall strength of the typhoon is weaker.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-03-11
  • 最后修改日期:2024-05-17
  • 录用日期:2024-06-21
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-06-24
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