doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1809.18142
CMIP5耦合模式对太平洋年代际振荡的模拟与预估

Simulation and Projection of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Based on CMIP5 Coupled Models
摘要点击 419  全文点击 282  投稿时间:2018-03-22  
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基金:  中国科学院战略性先导科技专项XDA20060501,国家自然科学基金面上项目41575080
中文关键词:  太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)  热带太平洋  遥相关  预估
英文关键词:  PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)  Tropic Pacific  Teleconnection  Projection
  
作者中文名作者英文名单位
陈红CHEN Hong中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029
引用:陈红.2019.CMIP5耦合模式对太平洋年代际振荡的模拟与预估[J].大气科学,43(4):783-795,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1809.18142.
Citation:CHEN Hong.2019.Simulation and Projection of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Based on CMIP5 Coupled Models[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),43(4):783-795,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1809.18142.
中文摘要:
      利用第五次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)40个模式的模拟资料和分类集合的方法,评估了耦合模式对20世纪太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)特征的模拟能力。结果表明,CMIP5多数模式对PDO周期有着较好的刻画能力,能模拟出PDO的年代际变化周期。模式对PDO模态空间特征的模拟能力存在较大差异,小部分模式模拟效果较差。进一步的分析表明,对PDO模态模拟较好的第1类模式,能较好地再现热带太平洋与北太平洋海表温度异常(SSTA)年代际变化间的关系,而且热带太平洋SSTA通过大气遥相关影响北太平样海表温度的过程也模拟的较成功。对PDO模态模拟差的模式,不能合理模拟出热带太平洋SSTA对北太平洋海表温度影响的遥相关过程。以上研究也证实了热带太平洋地区海表温度的年代际变率对北太平洋海表温度年代际变率的重要影响,热带太平洋SSTA对北太平洋SSTA的影响是通过大气遥相关实现的。利用CMIP5中等排放情景模拟结果,分析了第1类模式预估的北太平洋年代际变率的特征,发现21世纪北太平洋年代际变率的主要模态为一致的正异常分布且呈现明显的上升趋势,第二模态则表现为类似于20世纪典型PDO的马蹄型SSTA分布。
Abstract:
      Historical simulation outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models with a categorization method were used in this study to evaluate the performance of coupled models in simulating the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). While several of the 40 models under examination failed to reproduce the characteristics of PDO pattern, the majority of the models can reproduce the interdecadal cycle of PDO well. The good performance of the category-1 models in simulating the PDO pattern can be attributed to the relationship of the SSTA (sea surface temperature anomaly) between tropical Pacific and North Pacific being captured by these models. Further, the impact of the decadal SST variation in the tropic Pacific on the SST variation in the North Pacific via atmospheric teleconnection was reproduced using these models. In contrast, the models with poor simulation for the PDO pattern failed to reproduce the tropics-extratropics linkage in the SST anomalies that was induced by atmospheric teleconnection. This result indicates the importance of the decadal SST variation in the Tropic Pacific for the formation of PDO. Under RCP4.5 (Representation Concentration Pathway Scenarios 4.5), it is suggested that the first EOF (empirical orthogonal function) of SST variability over the North Pacific for the 21st century is a uniform positive pattern with a corresponding time series indicating an upward trend. Meanwhile, the second leading pattern of the 21st-century EOF analyses shows the spatial variability of the PDO diploe pattern.
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