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ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

太阳活动11年周期对ENSO事件海温异常演变和东亚降水的影响
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国家重点基础研究发展规划项目2010CB428603,国家自然科学基金资助项目 41025017


Influence of the 11-Year Solar Cycle on the Evolution of ENSO-Related SST Anomalies and Rainfall Anomalies in East Asia
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    摘要:

    本文利用美国NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、海温、降水和反映太阳活动强弱的太阳10.7 cm射电流量资料, 研究了1952~2010年太阳活动11年周期对ENSO年海温异常演变以及与之相联系的东亚降水的影响,在此基础上着重分析了ENSO发展期秋季东亚地区降水异常对太阳射电流量高 (HS) /低 (LS) 的不同响应以及相关的物理过程.对海温的分析结果表明,HS (LS) 年ENSO发展期各阶段赤道东太平洋以及热带西太平洋的海温异常的强度和范围都偏小 (大),且赤道东太平洋的正相关在次年春夏季衰减缓慢 (迅速).特别是在ENSO发展期秋季,随着赤道东太平洋海温的增暖,HS (LS) 年印度洋海温无 (有) 明显升高,并在随后的ENSO盛期印度洋海温正异常明显偏弱 (偏强).针对ENSO与东亚地区降水异常的研究发现,ENSO对我国降水的显著影响主要出现在发展期的秋季和衰减期的春季.若考虑太阳射电流量高、低不同年,与ENSO相联系的东亚降水异常的差异则主要出现在ENSO发展期的秋季.HS年ENSO发展期秋季我国大部分地区的降水异常信号较弱;而LS年时我国长江以南和长江以北的反向降水变化就非常显著.进一步分析表明,这种差别的原因在于对流层低层控制南、北方降水异常的两个重要环流系统——位于菲律宾附近的反气旋和我国华北北部的气旋的强度在太阳射电流量高、低不同年有显著差异.LS年南海及菲律宾地区附近出现的反气旋式环流异常偏强,加强了我国南方地区的水汽供应;而位于华北北部的气旋式环流异常也偏强,其西侧的偏北风造成长江以北地区的降水负异常.与此相反,HS年热带西太平洋反气旋和位于我国北方的气旋异常同时偏弱,造成我国大部分地区的降水异常偏弱且不显著.ENSO发展期秋季东亚大气环流对太阳射电流量高、低的不同响应可能是由于太阳活动对热带海温的影响所致,HS (LS) 年时会在太平洋强迫出类La Niña (El Niño) 的海温异常,导致在热带中东太平洋上升并在热带西太平洋下沉的异常Walker环流明显偏弱 (偏强).这样与HS年相比较,LS年在热带西太平洋的低层辐散就更强,热源导致的反气旋环流也就更强.

    Abstract:

    By using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the SST data, the rainfall data, and the 10.7 cm solar flux data which reflects the intensity of the solar activity, the impacts of solar activity on the seasonal SST anomalies and the related rainfall anomalies in East Asia during different phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are investigated in this paper. Particularly the authors focus on the different responses of the rainfall anomalies in East Asia in the fall of an ENSO developing year and the corresponding physical processes between the High Solar (HS) years and the Low Solar (LS) years. The SST analysis reveals that during the HS (LS) years, the intensity and scope of the SST anomalies in both the equatorial eastern Pacific and the tropical western Pacific are decreasing (increasing) in the developing phase of ENSO, and the positive correlation in the equatorial eastern Pacific weakens slowly (rapidly) in the following spring to summer. Especially in the HS phase, with the warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific, the Indian Ocean SST is found to have no apparent warming in the fall of an ENSO developing year and the Indian Ocean positive SST anomalies is significantly weaker in the following winter. The reverse situation tends to occur in the LS phase. According to the rainfall analysis results, the ENSO exerts its influence on the rainfall in China mostly in the preceding fall and the next spring. To put the solar activity in perspective, the main differences of the rainfall anomalies in East Asia occur in the preceding fall. The rainfall anomaly signals are insignificant in most of China during the preceding fall in the HS years, whereas in the LS years the reverse precipitation signals between the south and north of the Yangtze River are noticeable. Further research indicates that the rainfall differences originate from the differences of the two important circulation systems in the lower troposphere. During the LS years, the anticyclonic anomalies near the Philippines region tend to be stronger and thus intensify the supply of water vapor in the south of China. At the same time, the intensified northerly winds on the west side of the cyclone around the northern part of North China result in the less rainfall in the north of the Yangtze River. In contrast, both these two circulation systems are weaker and the associated rainfall anomalies are not significant during the HS years. The different circulation responses in the fall of an ENSO developing year may be attributed to the influences of the solar activity on the tropical SST. The results indicate that a La Niña (El Niño)-like SST pattern in the Pacific tends to be forced in the HS (LS) years, which is consistent with previous studies. Therefore, the anomalous Walker cell that rises in the tropical eastern Pacific and sinks in the tropical western Pacific is shown to be obviously weaker (stronger) in the HS (LS) phase. Compared with the HS years, in the LS years the divergence in the lower troposphere is strong in the tropical western Pacific and the induced anticyclonic circulation by the diabatic cooling is also strong.

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周群,陈文.太阳活动11年周期对ENSO事件海温异常演变和东亚降水的影响.大气科学,2012,36(4):851~862 ZHOU Qun, CHEN Wen. Influence of the 11-Year Solar Cycle on the Evolution of ENSO-Related SST Anomalies and Rainfall Anomalies in East Asia. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),2012,36(4):851~862

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  • 收稿日期:2011-09-13
  • 最后修改日期:2011-12-21
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  • 在线发布日期: 2012-06-18
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