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ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

气候系统模式FGOALS-s2对南半球气候的模拟和预估
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中国科学院战略性先导科技专项XDA05110300,国家自然科学基金41125017、40890054


Present and Future Climate in the Southern Hemisphere Simulated by IAP/LASG Climate System Model FGOALS-s2
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    摘要:

    针对参加“国际耦合模式比较计划”(CMIP5)的IAP/LASG气候系统模式FGOALS-s2,评估了其对南半球气候平均态的模拟能力,在此基础上,预估了未来不同 “典型浓度路径”(RCPs)情景下南半球气候的变化特征。对20世纪历史气候模拟结果的分析表明,模式能够合理再现南半球大气环流气候态分布特征,包括6~8月平均(JJA)南半球双西风急流现象,只是模拟的北支急流偏弱、南支急流偏强。未来气候预估试验中,不同RCPs情景下南半球温度变化以增暖为主要特征,陆地增温大于海洋,只有南大西洋—印度洋海盆存在局部变冷。综合四种不同情景,未来随着温室气体浓度的增加,南半球中纬度高压带将显著加强,绕极低压带将加深。降水呈现出增多的特征,12月到来年2月平均(DJF)强于JJA,海洋强于陆地,只有南印度洋和南太平洋中部局部降水减少。未来不同RCPs情景下,马斯克林高压表现出先减弱后增强的特征,而澳大利亚高压则呈现出先增强后减弱的特征。南极涛动(AAO)的变化表现为:RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下AAO都表现为先增强后减弱,RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景下都为一致的增强趋势,这主要与四种情景中模拟的未来温度变化结构不同有关。例如在RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景下,南半球高纬高层温度增暖趋势小于中纬地区,使得经向温度梯度增大,中纬度西风加强,60°S以南位势高度减小,最终令AAO增强。

    Abstract:

    The performance of IAP/LASG climate system model FGOALS-s2 in the simulation of present-day climate in the Southern Hemisphere is assessed. The future changes in the southern hemispheric climate are projected for four Representation Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results show that the major features of climate mean states of the Southern Hemisphere are well simulated, including the double jet phenomenon in June-July-August (JJA), although the north (south) branch is weaker (stronger) than the reanalysis. Under the four RCPs scenarios, the surface air temperature will become warmer, except in the south Atlantic-Indian ocean basin, and the warming amplitude over land is greater than that over the sea. Meanwhile, precipitation will increase in the entire hemisphere, except in the South Indian Ocean and in the center of the South Pacific Ocean. Under all RCP scenarios, the subtropical high in the Southern Hemisphere tends to be enhanced, while the circumpolar low tends to become deeper. The precipitation changes in December-January-February (DJF) and over sea are more obvious than those in JJA and over land. Under the four RCPs scenarios, the intensity of the Mascarene High (MH) will be weakened in the beginning but will be enhanced from the 2030s, while the Australain High (AH) will intensify in the beginning of the 21th century but will become weaker from the 2030s. The future evolution of Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is scenario dependent but clearly tends to be intensified under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The changes in AAO under the different RCPs scenarios are dominated by different temperature changes in the vertical direction. For example, both RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios lead to an enhanced meridional temperature gradient and thus to an enhanced mid-latitude westerly jet that is in favor of a stronger AAO.

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周天军,孙丹,薛峰.气候系统模式FGOALS-s2对南半球气候的模拟和预估.大气科学,2013,37(2):499~517 ZHOU Tianjun, SUN Dan, XUE Feng. Present and Future Climate in the Southern Hemisphere Simulated by IAP/LASG Climate System Model FGOALS-s2. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),2013,37(2):499~517

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  • 收稿日期:2012-10-08
  • 最后修改日期:2012-11-21
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  • 在线发布日期: 2013-03-08
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