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ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

春末环贝加尔湖地区环流的年际和年代际变化及与中国温度和降水的关系
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国家重点基础研究计划项目2010CB950304;国家自然科学基金项目40975033;国家科技支撑计划项目2009BAC51B02


Interannual and Interdecadal Variabilities of Circulation over Lake Baikal Region in Late Spring and Their Association with Temperature and Precipitation over China
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    摘要:

    本文利用1951~2011年的再分析资料及观测资料,探讨了春末环贝加尔湖地区环流的年际和年代际变化特征及其与中国温度、降水的关系,主要结论如下:(1)春末贝加尔湖脊(简称贝脊)在1951~1979年间较弱,但在1980~1999年期间显著增强。进入21世纪后,春末贝脊呈显著减弱的趋势;(2)强(弱)贝脊使我国北方地区的温度显著升高(降低),使西南地区的温度降低(升高)。贝脊的强弱变化,对北方地区温度的影响在1951~1979年期间最为显著,对西南地区温度的影响在1980~2011年期间显著。在1951~1999年期间,贝脊的强弱变化与长江下游的降水量存在明显的反位相变化关系。进入21世纪后,贝脊的强弱变化与西南地区降水量之间存在较为显著的正相关关系(99%置信度);(3)强贝脊与由北大西洋/欧洲上空向东传播的定常行星波密切相关,而弱贝脊主要与欧亚大陆次极区纬向伸展的行星尺度脊相联系。在不同的年代际时段,与贝脊强弱变化相联系的北半球异常环流特征也存在一定的差异;(4)5月份的强贝脊环流以前期的北大西洋涛动、东大西洋型以及弱东亚大槽环流为前兆信号。同年3月乌拉尔山气旋式异常环流为5月份贝脊弱的前兆信号。

    Abstract:

    Characteristics of the circulation over the Lake Baikal region in late spring and its association withtemperature and precipitation over China are investigated on interannual and interdecadal time scales by using reanalysis and observational data from 1951-2011. It is determined that a ridge over Lake Baikal (LBR) was in a weak phase during 1951-1979 but was amplified during 1980-1999. Since the beginning of this century, the amplitude of the LBR showed a significant decreasing trend. In addition, a strong (weak) LBR led to a temperature increase (decrease) over northern China and a temperature decrease (increase) over southwestern China. The temperature influences of the LBR over the northern part of China were most significant during 1951-1979 and became significant over southwestern China after 1980. An out-of-phase relationship existed between LBR intensity and the precipitation over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley during 1951-1999. Conversely, the LBR intensity was strongly correlated with the precipitation over southwestern China since the beginning of this century, with a positive correlation coefficient of 0.74 at the 0.01 significance level. Moreover, the strong LBR was characterized by the eastward propagation of a stationary planetary-scale wave that originated from the North Atlantic/European sector, and the weak LBR featured a ridge with a zonally elongated structure along the sub-arctic coast of Eurasia. However, among the various interdecadal time periods, the characteristics of the Northern Hemisphere circulation associated with the anomalous LBR show differences. Further, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic Oscillation, and the weakened East Asian major trough persisting in February-April may be considered as precursory signals of the strong LBR in May. For the weak LBR in May, anomalous cyclonic circulation over the Ural Mountains may be considered as a precursory signal.

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陈丹,布和朝鲁,朱克云.春末环贝加尔湖地区环流的年际和年代际变化及与中国温度和降水的关系.大气科学,2013,37(6):1199~1209 CHEN Dan, BUEH Cholaw, ZHU Keyun. Interannual and Interdecadal Variabilities of Circulation over Lake Baikal Region in Late Spring and Their Association with Temperature and Precipitation over China. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),2013,37(6):1199~1209

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  • 收稿日期:2012-09-18
  • 最后修改日期:2013-01-15
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  • 在线发布日期: 2013-10-23
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