doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1808.18123
1961~2015年中国地区冰雹持续时间的时空分布特征及影响因子研究

Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Hail Duration in China during 1961-2015 and Its Possible Influence Factors
摘要点击 664  全文点击 502  投稿时间:2018-02-05  
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基金:  国家自然科学基金项目41775139、41375135,科技部公益性行业气象国家自然科学基金项目41775139、41375135,科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201406033,科技部战略性国际科技创新合作重点专项2016YFE0201900
中文关键词:  冰雹  持续时间  时空分布  影响因子
英文关键词:  Hail duration  Temporal and spatial distribution  Potential influential factors
                 
作者中文名作者英文名单位
赵文慧ZHAO Wenhui中国气象科学研究院中国气象局云雾物理环境重点实验室,北京100081
姚展予YAO Zhanyu中国气象科学研究院中国气象局云雾物理环境重点实验室,北京100081
贾烁JIA Shuo中国气象科学研究院中国气象局云雾物理环境重点实验室,北京100081
王伟健WANG Weijian中国气象科学研究院中国气象局云雾物理环境重点实验室,北京100081
张沛ZHANG Pei中国气象科学研究院中国气象局云雾物理环境重点实验室,北京100081
高亮书and GAO Liangshu中国气象科学研究院中国气象局云雾物理环境重点实验室,北京100081
引用:赵文慧,姚展予,贾烁,王伟健,张沛,高亮书.2019.1961~2015年中国地区冰雹持续时间的时空分布特征及影响因子研究[J].大气科学,43(3):539-551,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1808.18123.
Citation:ZHAO Wenhui,YAO Zhanyu,JIA Shuo,WANG Weijian,ZHANG Pei,and GAO Liangshu.2019.Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Hail Duration in China during 1961-2015 and Its Possible Influence Factors[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),43(3):539-551,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1808.18123.
中文摘要:
      本文利用1961~2015年(55年)中国地区577个地面观测站的冰雹资料,应用统计学方法,分析了冰雹持续时间的空间分布、年际变化以及日变化特征,包括站点降雹累积持续时间、平均单次降雹持续时间、区域平均单次降雹持续时间、小时降雹累积持续时间和总降雹累积持续时间。结果表明:(1)1961~2015年中国地区站点降雹累积持续时间与海拔高度呈现较高的正相关关系,相关系数高达0.99。站点降雹累积持续时间的最大值出现在青藏高原地区,累积持续时间高达250分钟,其次为内蒙古中部以及东北部的山区地带,累积持续时间约为150分钟。(2)1961~2015年平均单次降雹持续时间呈现上升趋势,55年冰雹累积持续时间大约增长1分钟,且通过了95%信度水平的显著性检验。(3)西北地区、北部平原地区和东南地区在1961~1980年期间,区域平均单次降雹持续时间都有显著的下降趋势,而在1970~2015年期间西北地区和青藏高原地区呈现显著的上升趋势。1961~1980年期间区域平均单次降雹持续时间在西北地区的长期趋势变化主要受到日最低气温以及温度日较差长期年际变化的影响,在北部平原地区仅与温度日较差相关,而在东南地区与三个对流参数都有较好的相关性;1970~2015年和1961~2015年期间西北地区和青藏高原地区的区域平均单次降雹持续时间的上升趋势分别与这两个区域的区域平均日最高气温、日最低气温呈正相关。(4)单次降雹持续时间的日变化明显,午后至夜间出现的冰雹持续时间长于凌晨和上午的冰雹持续时间,持续时间峰值出现在当地时间17时和18时。本文还利用探空资料分析了对流有效势能和Totals-totals指数与冰雹持续时间的关系,结果表明中国地区20时(北京时)的对流有效势能和Totals-totals指数可能是冰雹持续时间日变化的影响因子之一。
Abstract:
      Based on 55-year (1961 to 2015) ground-based hail and atmospheric sounding observations, the climatological characteristics of hail duration in mainland China, including hail durations at individual stations, average single hail duration, regional average single hail duration, hourly hail duration, and whole hail duration, along with convective parameters, are analyzed. The results show that: (1) The hail duration is highly positively correlated with altitude and the correlation coefficient is up to 0.99. The largest hail duration of about 250 min for the period 1961-2015 appeared in the Tibetan Plateau, followed by that in the mountainous areas in the central and northeastern Inner Mongolia (about 150 min). (2) Overall, the average single hail duration increased by 1 minute from 1961 to 2015, and the trend is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. (3) Regionally average single hail duration shows a downward trend in NWC (Northwest China), NCP (North China Plain), and SEC (Southeast China), but an upward trend in NWC and TP (the Tibetan Plateau) during 1961-1980. There are positive relationships between regional average single hail duration trend in NWC and the trends of Tmin (daily minimum temperature) and DTR (daily temperature range), while the hail duration trend in NCP is mainly correlated with the DTR trend. The hail duration trend in SEC is well correlated with all convective parameters. The upward trends of regional average hail duration both are positively correlated with the trends of Tmax (daily maximum temperature) and Tmin in NWC and TP during 1970-2015 and 1961-2015. (4) In terms of diurnal variability, the hail duration of cases that occurred during afternoon and night is longer than the duration of cases that occurred in the morning. The hail duration peaks appear at 1700 LT (local time) and 1800 LT. The analysis of relationships of hail duration and CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) , Totals-totals index based on long-term sounding data shows that CAPE and Totals-totals index at 2000 BJT (Beijing time) may be two factors that influence the diurnal cycle of hail duration in mainland China.
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