双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

广义湿位涡在江淮流域暴雨分析和预报中的应用
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

基金项目:

国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2009CB421505),中国科学院知识创新方向项目KZCX2-YW-206-4,公益性行业(气象)科研专项经费GYHY200706020,灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题2006LASW05


Application of Generalized Moist Potential Vorticity to Analysis and Forecast of the Torrential Rain over the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
    摘要:

    利用中尺度数值模式MM5, 以6 h间隔的NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°的格点资料为背景, 加入新一代天气雷达 (CINRAD-SA雷达) 1 h间隔的反演风廓线资料和12 h探空、 3 h常规地面观测进行四维同化模拟得到的输出资料, 检验非均匀饱和大气中的广义湿位涡在2003年江淮流域暴雨动力指示方面的分析和预报能力。理论分析表明: 广义湿位涡综合体现了大气的动力、 热力及水汽作用, 相对于常用的温度、 湿度等物理量来说, 在一定程度上包含了风场、 温度场和湿度场的相互作用, 对实际非均匀饱和大气的热力变化和水汽影响有较好的反映。对模拟结果的诊断发现, 广义湿位涡倾向值的正负及强弱变化对暴雨落区预报和单站降水变化趋势预报都有一定的指示意义。利用NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°格点资料和气象台站观测的实况降水资料, 对1999年长江流域梅雨和2007年淮河流域大洪水时期的广义湿位涡及其倾向变化与区域平均降水变化的对比分析进一步表明了在持续性暴雨发生时期, 在大气中低层(主要在500 hPa以下), 确实持续存在广义湿位涡和广义湿位涡倾向的异常, 这种异常能在一定程度上反映出对应时期的水汽分布和水汽集中特征, 与降水量的变化是一致的, 而850 hPa以下的广义湿位涡倾向在一定程度上也能反映出降水的增强或减弱趋势, 即: 广义湿位涡倾向为正 (负) 异常时, 未来降水量可能增加 (减小), 因此, 广义湿位涡倾向可以定性地给出暴雨是加强还是减弱的强度趋势预报。类似于涡度、 湿位涡等其他动力变量, 广义湿位涡除了可作为一个分析暴雨系统发生发展的动力变量外, 还可体现出暴雨时期高水汽集中的特点, 在暴雨分析中有一定的优势。

    Abstract:

    The generalized moist potential vorticity (GMPV), adopted by Gao et al.(2004b), is studied in this paper. It is found that GMPV, which contains information of interactions among wind, temperature and moisture, can be used in dynamic identification of heavy rain systems. Utilizing the retrieved horizontal wind from the observation data of China new generation weather radar (CINRAD-SA radar) with 1h interval, the sounding with 12 h interval and the surface observational data with 3 h interval, and the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) 1°×1° grid data, with the four-dimensional data assimilation system, the output data of the meso-scale model MM5 with fine resolution are used to test the ability of GMPV and its tendency anomalies in dynamic identification and prediction of the torrential rain occurring over the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin during 8-9 July 2003. Two sets of diagnoses are performed. One is the precipitation evolution at one single station, and the other is the locations and movements of surface heavy rain centers. Both show good correspondences between precipitation and change of GMPV and its tendency. The analyses of GMPV over the Yangtze River basin in the Meiyu period of 1999 and over the Huaihe River basin during the torrential rain period of 2007 indicate that the change of the GMPV anomaly is in agreement with that of precipitation, and the anomaly generally occurrs at mid-lower levels (under 500 hPa), which is similar to the distribution of moisture in the air. The tendency of GMPV under 850 hPa is the same as that of precipitation intensity, namely, the positive (negative) tendency of GMPV always indicates that the precipitation would increase (decrease), which is useful for the intensity forecast of torrential rain. The GMPV and its tendency not only can be taken as dynamical variables to analyze and forecast the location and intensity tendency of torrential rain, but also can reflect the distribution and concentration of water vapor, which are useful for the analysis of heavy rain cases.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

周玉淑.广义湿位涡在江淮流域暴雨分析和预报中的应用.大气科学,2009,33(5):1101~1110 ZHOU Yushu. Application of Generalized Moist Potential Vorticity to Analysis and Forecast of the Torrential Rain over the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),2009,33(5):1101~1110

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2011-12-06
  • 出版日期: