双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

“7.21” 暴雨过程动力因子分析和预报研究
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

基金项目:

国家重点基础研究发展计划项目2013CB430105;中国科学院重点部署项目KZZD-EW-05;灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题 2011LASW-B15;公益性行业气象科研专项GYHY200906004;国家自然科学基金项目41175060、41075098、41005005;王宽城教 育基金


Analysis and Forecasting of Heavy Rainfall Case on 21 July 2012 with Dynamical Parameters
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
    摘要:

    针对2012年7月21~22日发生在我国华北地区的暴雨过程,利用美国全球预报系统资料对湿热力平流参数、对流涡度矢量的垂直分量、热力波作用密度、热力位涡波作用密度、热力位势散度波作用密度和湿斜压涡度等动力因子进行计算和诊断分析,结果表明,该暴雨过程是由高、低空急流、高空槽、副热带高压、冷锋和辐合切变线等多个天气系统共同作用造成的。降水区具有垂直上升运动强烈,垂直热量输送明显,湿等熵面向下伸展和水平风垂直切变显著等动、热力学特征。湿热力平流参数等动力因子综合反映了上述动、热力垂直结构特征,因而与6小时观测降水的发展移动有一定相关性。全球预报系统48小时预报的动力因子高值区在走向和落区上与6小时观测降水区比较接近,代表动力因子对降水落区有一定的指示意义。利用全球预报系统的预报场资料对动力因子暴雨预报方程进行计算,结果表明,在降水中心位置预报方面,动力因子降水预报比全球预报系统本身的降水预报更接近观测实况。ETS(Equitable Threat Score)评分计算表明,对于降水的早期预报,动力因子降水预报评分略高于全球预报系统本身的降水预报评分,说明动力因子暴雨预报方程有一定的降水预报能力,可以应用到实际天气业务预报中。

    Abstract:

    For the extremely heavy rainfall case occurring between 21 and 22 July 2012 in North China, dynamical parameters, including the moist thermodynamic advection parameter, the vertical component of convective vorticity vector, the thermodynamic wave-activity density, the thermodynamic potential vorticity wave-activity density, the thermodynamic potential divergence wave-activity density, and the baroclinic vorticity were calculated and analyzed with the forecasting dataset obtained from the NCEP/NCAR Global Forecasting System (GFS) model. Results showed that the heavy rainfall case was caused by the interactions of high-level and low-level jet streams, low pressure trough, the sub-tropical high, a cold front, a convergence line, mesovortex, and similar features. The atmosphere in the precipitation region had both dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of strong upward motion, evident vertical heat transport, downward extending moist isentropic surfaces, and strong vertical wind shear. All these characteristics were included in the studied dynamical parameters, which corresponded to the observed precipitation very well. Areas with high values of certain dynamical parameters calculated from the 48 h forecasting fields from the GFS were spatially near the rainfall areas, which demonstrated that these dynamical parameters can be used to indicate rainfall areas. Using the dynamical parameters to run the heavy rainfall forecasting equations in the GFS forecasting fields, it was found that precipitation forecasted using these dynamical parameters was closer to the observed precipitation compared to that forecasted by the GFS. Analyses of ETS (Equitable Threat Score) showed that for early warning forecasts, dynamical parameters had higher ETS than the GFS, meaning that the aforementioned dynamical parameters could be used to forecast the precipitation and the corresponding heavy rainfall forecasting equations should be routinely applied in weather forecasting.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

冉令坤,齐彦斌,郝寿昌.“7.21” 暴雨过程动力因子分析和预报研究.大气科学,2014,38(1):83~100 RAN Lingkun, QI Yanbin, HAO Shouchang. Analysis and Forecasting of Heavy Rainfall Case on 21 July 2012 with Dynamical Parameters. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),2014,38(1):83~100

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2012-12-28
  • 最后修改日期:2013-08-02
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2013-12-25
  • 出版日期: