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参加CMIP5的四个中国气候模式模拟的东亚冬季风年际变率
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国家杰出青年科学基金项目41125017,中国科学院战略性先导科技专项XDA05110300


Analysis of the Interannual Variations of the East Asian Winter Monsoon Simulation by Four CMIP5 GCMs
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    摘要:

    本文比较了中国参加“国际耦合模式比较计划”(CMIP5)的四个大气环流模式(即FGOALS-g2、FGOALS-s2、BCC-CSM1-1、BNU-ESM大气模式)在观测海温驱动下,对东亚冬季风(EAWM)气候态和年际变率的模拟能力。结果表明,在气候态上,四个模式均合理再现了EAWM高低层环流系统(包括低层西伯利亚高压(SH)、阿留申低压、异常偏北风、和中高层东亚大槽、西风急流),其中对2 m气温和500 hPa高度场的模拟技巧最高,四个模式模拟的结果与再分析资料的空间相关系数都达到0.99。在年际变率上,分别对东亚北部地区(30°N~60°N,100°E~140°E)和东亚南部地区(0°~30°N,100°E~140°E)的2 m气温进行经验正交函数分解(EOF),提取变率主导模态。结果表明,在东亚北部地区,四个模式对2 m气温第一模态(简称“北部型”)的空间分布均有很高的模拟技巧,但只有BNU-ESM能够较好再现其对应的年际变率,其模拟的时间序列与观测的相关系数为0.69。四个模式均能模拟出观测中的3.1 a主导周期,但只有FGOALS-s2和BNU-ESM能模拟出观测中的2.5 a主导周期。在东亚南部地区,模式模拟的前两个主模态共同解释观测中第一模态(简称“南部型”)的特征,其中FGOALS-g2、FGOALS-s2和BNU-ESM的综合模拟技巧较高,但只有BNU-ESM成功再现了观测中2.5 a和3.1 a的主导周期。机理分析表明,FGOALS-g2、FGOALS-s2、BNU-ESM三个模式能合理再现菲律宾海反气旋,同时对南部型有较高的模拟能力,而BCC-CSM1-1则未能有效再现菲律宾海反气旋,使得 BCC-CSM1-1对南部型模拟技巧较低。观测和四个模式模拟的结果一致表现出北极涛动(AO)与北部型PC1呈显著相关,影响大于SH。

    Abstract:

    This study evaluates simulations of the interannual variations of the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) in four general circulation models (GCMs) that participated in the Couple Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). The results indicate that all models can reasonably reproduce the high-and low-level circulation fields including the Siberian High (SH), Aleutian low, near surface wind and mid-to upper-level East Asian (EA) major trough, and upper-tropospheric EA jet. The interannual variability modes are identified by performing separate empirical orthogonal Function (EOF) analyses of the temperature 2 m over the northern domain (30°N-60°N, 100°E-140°E) and the southern domain (0°-30°N, 100°E-140°E). For the northern mode, all four models effectively capture the spatial features. However, only the Beijing Normal University-Earth System Model(BNU-ESM) reasonably simulates the temporal characteristics; the first principalcomponent (PC1) correlation coefficient between the BNU-ESM and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/U.S. Department of Energy Reanalysis Ⅱ (NCEP-DOE Ⅱ) is 0.69. For the southern mode, the first two EOF modes in all models correlate strongly with the observed first leading EOF mode (EOF1), which indicates that the simulated first two modes together explain the observed characteristics of the first mode. The general skills of the grid-point version 2 Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model (FGOALS-g2), the version 2 FGOALS spectral model (FGOALS-s2), and BNU-ESM in the simulation of the southern modes are high, which is mainly attributed to the successful simulation of the Philippine Sea anticyclone associated with El Ni?o forcing. However, version 1.1 of the BeijingClimate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM1-1) fails to capture the interannual variations of the southern mode and the Philippine Sea anticyclone. Both the observation and the simulations show that the northern mode correlates significantly with Arctic Oscillation (AO).

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金晨曦,周天军.参加CMIP5的四个中国气候模式模拟的东亚冬季风年际变率.大气科学,2014,38(3):453~468 JIN Chenxi, ZHOU Tianjun. Analysis of the Interannual Variations of the East Asian Winter Monsoon Simulation by Four CMIP5 GCMs. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese),2014,38(3):453~468

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  • 收稿日期:2013-05-20
  • 最后修改日期:2013-11-20
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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-05-06
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