doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1802.17306
东亚夏季风变化机理的模拟和未来变化的预估: 成绩和问题、机遇和挑战

A Review of East Asian Summer Monsoon Simulation and Projection: Achievements and Problems, Opportunities and Challenges
摘要点击 188  全文点击 40  投稿时间:2017-12-26  修订日期:2018-01-22
查看HTML全文  查看全文  查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
基金:  
中文关键词:  东亚夏季风、数值模拟、副高、降水、日变化、年际和年代际变率、气候预估、温室气体和气溶胶、海气相互作用、高分辨率模式
英文关键词:  East Asian Summer Monsoon, Numerical modeling, Western Pacific subtropical high, precipitation, Diurnal cycle, Interdecadal and interannual variabilities, Climate projection, Greenhouse gases and aerosols, Air-sea interactions, High-resolution model
        
作者中文名作者英文名单位
周天军Tianjun ZhouIAP/LASG
吴波IAP/LASG
郭准IAP/LASG
引用:周天军,吴波,郭准.2018.东亚夏季风变化机理的模拟和未来变化的预估: 成绩和问题、机遇和挑战[J].大气科学
Citation:Tianjun Zhou.2018.A Review of East Asian Summer Monsoon Simulation and Projection: Achievements and Problems, Opportunities and Challenges[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese)
中文摘要:
      东亚夏季风对于我国东部气候具有重要影响,呈现出多种时间尺度的变化特征。在理解东亚夏季风过去和当前的变化机理、预测和预估其未来变化等方面,气候系统模式发挥着不可替代的作用。但是当前的气候模式在东亚夏季风的模拟上尚存在诸多不足,这使得其模拟结果存在不确定性,既制约了我们对过去和当前季风变化机理的准确理解,又降低了未来预测预估结果的可信度。关于造成季风模拟偏差的原因,既涉及模式本身的性能问题,又与模拟系统的构建、强迫资料的误差、乃至我们当前对季风变化规律自身的认知水平有关。本文以时间尺度为序,从气候态、日变化、年际变率、年代际变率、长期气候变化和未来预估等季风学界关注的热点问题角度,本着总结成绩、归纳问题、寻找机遇、面对挑战的目的,从七个方面系统总结了当前气候模式的水平,归纳了其主要偏差特征,讨论了影响模式性能的可能因素。内容涉及模式分辨率和地形效应、对流和云辐射效应的作用、与季风相关的热带海气相互作用关键过程、内部变率(太平洋年代际振荡)、自然变率(太阳辐照度变化和火山气溶胶强迫)和人为辐射强迫(人为温室气体和气溶胶排放)对季风变化的不同影响、热力和动力过程及气候敏感度对季风环流(副高)和降水预估不确定性的影响等。最后从优化参数、实现场地观测和过程模拟的协同、发展高分辨和对流相容模式等角度,讨论了提升东亚夏季风模拟能力的技术途径。
Abstract:
      East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), leading great impacts on the East Asian climate, involves multiple time-scale variabilities. Climate models play an irreplaceable role in understanding the EASM changes in the past, and predicting/projecting its changes in the future. However, there has still many discrepancies and uncertainties in the simulations of the EASM related to the inherent lack of understanding of EASM changes and models’ performances, which limit our understanding of mechanisms responsible for the EASM variabilities and lowers the reliabilities of long-term climate projections. In order to summarize current model performances, to learn major characteristics of model biases, to detect a possible way improving the model’s skill, this paper provides a review of the EASM modeling from seven aspects popular in the monsoon community, which are listed in terms of time scales, i.e., climatology, diurnal cycle, interannual variability, interdecadal variability, long-term climate change and climate projection. The content includes the effects of model resolution and model topography, climate effects of moist convection and cloud-radiation, monsoon-related tropical air-sea interactions, impacts on the EASM by the internally generated climate variability (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), natural forcing solar cycle variation and volcanic eruption) and anthropogenic forcing (emissions of greenhouse gas and aerosol), and thermodynamic and dynamic processes and model climate sensitivity causing uncertainties in projections of the EASM circulation and precipitation. Moreover, this paper also proposes several possible routes to improve the EASM simulations from following perspectives, optimization of parameters, improvement of model’s physics by better considering field observation, development of high-resolution and convection-permitting model.
主办单位:中国科学院大气物理研究所 单位地址:北京市9804信箱
联系电话: 010-82995051,010-82995052传真:010-82995052 邮编:100029 Email:dqkx@mail.iap.ac.cn
本系统由北京勤云科技发展有限公司设计
京ICP备09060247号