doi:  10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1906.18138
一种表征南海季风强度的指标及其与华南降水的关系

An index to characterize the intensity of the south China sea monsoon and its relationship with precipitation in South China
摘要点击 38  全文点击 12  投稿时间:2018-03-20  修订日期:2019-06-13
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基金:  江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)
中文关键词:  中国南海季风  华南降水  非线性  广义线性回归模型
英文关键词:  South China Sea monsoon  precipitation in South China  nonlinear relationship  generalized linear models
                 
作者中文名作者英文名单位
赵玮Zhao Wei南京信息工程大学
陆尔Lu Er
龚理卿Gong Li-Qing
王睆Huan Wang
刘佳Liu Jia深圳市气象局
方陆俊Fang Lu-Jun杭州市气象局
引用:赵玮,陆尔,龚理卿,王睆,刘佳,方陆俊.2020.一种表征南海季风强度的指标及其与华南降水的关系[J].大气科学
Citation:Zhao Wei,Lu Er,Gong Li-Qing,Huan Wang,Liu Jia,Fang Lu-Jun.2020.An index to characterize the intensity of the south China sea monsoon and its relationship with precipitation in South China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese)
中文摘要:
      风场强度与方向的季节性变化是季风区最显著的气象要素变化特征之一。Lu和Chan在1999年利用中国南海季风经向风分量强度的季节平均值定义了一种与华南夏季降水有很好相关性的指数。为了进一步验证和改进该指数,本文利用逐月NCEP/NCAR风场再分析资料以及华南地区的基准、基本气象站降水资料,将设计指数时允许的实际风的投影方向从规定的正北方向(即经向风),拓展为允许偏转的其他方向,以此建立改进的指数。为了更好的反应改进后的指数与华南降水的月累积量之间的关系,本文引入了广义线性模型及正态分布和Gamma分布两类假设,来建立两者非线性的回归关系。结果证明,实际风在自正北方向逆时针旋转11.3°的方向上的投影与华南降水具有最好的相关性,采用这一方向上的投影可以对原指数加以改进;中国南海季风所覆盖的风场与华南降水的月累积量之间有显著的非线性关系,而对降水采用Gamma分布假设的广义线性模型能够比正态分布假设得到更符合实际的回归结果。
Abstract:
      Seasonal change in wind strength and direction is one of the most significant characteristics of meteorological elements in the monsoon region. In 1999, Lu and Chan defined a monsoon index by using the seasonal mean value of the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon southerly component intensity, which has a good correlation with summer precipitation in South China (SC). In order to verify and renovate this index, by using the monthly mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the daily precipitation data of the national reference or basic synoptic stations in SC, we let the wind projected in different directions, not the restricted southerly direction, so that the performance of the index can be improved. For quantifying the relationship between the SCS’s wind monthly mean projected component intensity in above-mentioned direction and the SC’s monthly precipitation, the Generalized Linear Models and the two forms of the probability distribution, normal distribution and gamma distribution has been used. The fact of which the SCS’s wind projected component intensity in north-west 11.3°have a better correlation with summer precipitation in South China been is discovered. There is a significant nonlinear relationship between precipitation in Southern China and the new index. The generalized linear model with Gamma distribution hypothesis for precipitation can obtain better realistic regression results than the normal distribution hypothesis.
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