双月刊

ISSN 1006-9895

CN 11-1768/O4

Aeolus水平径向风速产品资料同化在台风预报中的应用研究
作者:
作者单位:

1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/中国气象局气溶胶与云降水重点开放实验室/大气物理学院;2.上海卫星工程研究所;3.中国空气动力研究与发展中心计算空气动力研究所

作者简介:

通讯作者:

基金项目:

上海航天科技创新基金资助项目;南京信息工程大学大学生创新创业训练计划


Application of Aeolus Horizontal Line-of-sight Product Data Assimilation in Typhoon Forecast
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/ Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration/ Joint Laboratory of Meteorological Environment Satellite Engineering and Application,Nanjing University of Information Science Technology;2.Shanghai Satellite Engineering Institute;3.China Aerodynamics Research and Development Center

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
    摘要:

    为评价星载激光测风雷达产品资料同化对台风预报的影响,以2020年台风“黑格比”和2019年台风“利奇马”为例,选用Aeolus卫星的水平径向风速产品,开展星载激光测风雷达资料同化及其对台风预报影响研究。首先基于ERA5再分析资料对Aeolus产品进行统计检验和偏差订正,并统计各高度层观测背景差的均方差作为观测误差用于同化试验。然后通过WRFDA(Weather Research and Forecast Model Data Assimilation)模式同化Aeolus产品并利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecast Model)模式开展预报试验。试验结果表明,Aeolus产品精度较高,统计所得各层观测误差在3-5 m/s范围且随高度的升高而增大,订正后资料满足三维变分同化无偏假设;在台风“黑格比”和“利奇马”期间同化该产品能使模式具备更加合理的环流形势,能够有效提高对台风“黑格比”和“利奇马”路径及强度的预报效果。

    Abstract:

    In order to evaluate the impact of spaceborne lidar product data assimilation on typhoon forecast, this paper studied the assimilation of Aeolus Horizontal line-of-sight data and its impact on typhoon forecast for Typhoon Hagupit in 2020 and Typhoon Lekima in 2019. First, we conducted statistical test and deviation correction on Aeolus products and used the statistical root meean square error of each hight layer as the observation error for the assimilation. Then, Aeolus products were assimilated by WRFDA (Weather Research and Forecast Model Data Assimilation) model, and the prediction test was carried out by WRF (Weather Research and Forecast Model) model. The experiment results show that the Aeolus products are highly accurate, the observation error of each layer after correction is in the range of 3-5 m/s and increases with the increase of height. The corrected data meet the unbiased assumption of three-dimensional variational assimilation. Assimilating Aeolus products during Typhoon Hagupit and Typhoon Lekima can make the model show more reasonable circulation patter and effectively improve the track and intensity forecast of typhoon Hagupit and Lekima.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-03-12
  • 最后修改日期:2022-11-03
  • 录用日期:2023-02-28
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-03-15
  • 出版日期: